Wall Street Rebounds: US Stocks Surge as US-Iran Deal Lowers Oil Prices

US equity markets staged a strong recovery on Thursday, erasing much of the previous session's losses as geopolitical tensions eased. A significant breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and falling energy costs have bolstered investor confidence, driving major indices higher.

Geopolitical Breakthrough Drives Oil Prices Down

The primary catalyst for the market rebound was the initial agreement between Washington and Tehran to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal initiates a 60-day negotiating process focused on Iran's nuclear programme, where Iran has agreed to dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for the waiver of US-backed sanctions on oil exports.

This diplomatic progress triggered a sharp decline in energy markets. Brent crude fell by $1.19 to $78.36 a barrel, while the US benchmark crude dropped $1.56 to $74.45 a barrel. While prices remain above the pre-war benchmark of $70, they have retreated significantly from the $100-plus levels witnessed just weeks ago. This drop in input costs provided a much-needed boost to travel and transport sectors, with Delta, United, and American Airlines seeing gains between 1.5% and 2%.

Tech Giants Lead the Rally

The Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 1.2% advance, fueled largely by a massive surge in the semiconductor sector. Intel shares skyrocketed by 8.7% following an announcement by President Donald Trump that the chipmaker had agreed to manufacture chips for Apple within the United States. This news comes as Apple navigates potential price hikes driven by global memory chip shortages.

In contrast to the semiconductor boom, the space sector faced headwinds. SpaceX extended its recent downward trend, falling 3.2% in premarket trading following a nearly 5% decline on Wednesday.

Despite the bullish sentiment, investors remain cautious regarding the US Federal Reserve's next moves. The market is closely analyzing signals from the latest policy meeting, where nine out of 18 members of the rate-setting committee signaled support for higher interest rates this year to combat persistent inflation. Specifically, six members backed two or more quarter-point increases.

Meskipun suku bunga yang lebih tinggi dimaksudkan untuk meredam inflasi, hal tersebut menimbulkan risiko perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi. Ketua Fed Kevin Warsh telah mengindikasikan adanya peninjauan terhadap strategi komunikasi bank sentral, namun ia tidak memberikan prakiraan suku bunga yang spesifik untuk tahun 2026.

Sentimen Pasar Global

Meskipun Wall Street dan pasar utama Asia menguat, pasar Eropa mengalami sedikit penurunan. DAX Jerman turun 0,1%, CAC 40 Prancis merosot 0,2%, dan FTSE 100 Inggris turun 1%. Namun, di Asia, optimisme sangat tinggi; Nikkei 225 Jepang mencapai rekor penutupan di angka 71.053,49, dan Kospi Korea Selatan naik 2,3% ke rekor tertinggi lainnya, didorong oleh pemimpin teknologi Samsung Electronics dan SK Hynix.

Poin-Poin Penting

  • Relief Geopolitik: Kesepakatan AS-Iran untuk membuka kembali Selat Hormuz telah berhasil menurunkan harga minyak, memberikan keringanan bagi sektor-sektor yang sensitif terhadap energi seperti maskapai penerbangan.
  • Momentum Teknologi: Lonjakan 8,7% Intel menyusul berita manufaktur berbasis di AS untuk Apple menjadi pendorong utama kenaikan Nasdaq sebesar 1,2%.
  • Kehati-hatian Fed: Terlepas dari penguatan pasar, para pelaku pasar terus memantau kecenderungan hawkish di dalam Fed, dengan mayoritas anggota mendukung kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut tahun ini.