Wall Street Rebounds as US-Iran Deal Triggers Oil Slide and Tech Rally

US stock markets staged a robust recovery on Thursday, erasing much of the previous session's losses as geopolitical tensions eased and energy costs plummeted. Driven by a landmark agreement between Washington and Tehran, major indices saw significant gains as investor sentiment shifted toward optimism.

Geopolitical Breakthrough Drives Oil Prices Down

The primary catalyst for the market rebound was the initial agreement between the US and Iran aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The deal initiates a 60-day negotiating process regarding Iran's nuclear programme, during which Iran will dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in exchange for a waiver of US-backed sanctions to resume oil exports.

This diplomatic progress led to a sharp decline in energy markets. Brent crude fell by $1.19 to $78.36 a barrel, while the US benchmark crude dropped $1.56 to $74.45. While these prices remain above the pre-war level of $70, they represent a significant retreat from the $100-plus levels witnessed just a few weeks ago. Consequently, the lower energy costs provided a tailwind for travel-related stocks, with Delta, United, and American Airlines rising between 1.5% and 2%, and cruise operators like Royal Caribbean gaining over 2%.

Tech Giants Lead the Indices Higher

The Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 1.2% advance, fueled largely by breakthroughs in the semiconductor sector. Intel emerged as a standout performer, surging 8.7% after President Donald Trump announced the chipmaker had agreed to manufacture chips for Apple within the United States. This news comes amid broader industry concerns regarding memory chip shortages and potential price hikes by Apple.

In contrast, the space sector faced headwinds as SpaceX extended its decline, falling 3.2% in premarket trading following a nearly 5% drop on Wednesday.

Despite the rally, Wall Street remains cautious regarding the Federal Reserve's next moves. While Treasury yields eased, helping the S&P 500 rise 1% and the Dow Jones gain 383 points, the path for interest rates remains contested.

Dalam pertemuan kebijakan terbaru, sembilan dari 18 anggota komite penetapan suku bunga Fed memberikan sinyal dukungan terhadap kenaikan suku bunga tahun ini untuk memerangi inflasi yang terus berlanjut. Khususnya, enam anggota mendukung setidaknya dua kali kenaikan sebesar seperempat poin. Meskipun Ketua Fed Kevin Warsh mengindikasikan adanya peninjauan terhadap cara bank sentral berkomunikasi dengan publik, potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut terus membebani proyeksi ekonomi jangka panjang.

Divergensi Pasar Global

Sementara pasar AS dan Asia menunjukkan penguatan, pasar Eropa mengalami sedikit penurunan. DAX Jerman turun 0,1%, CAC 40 Prancis merosot 0,2%, dan FTSE 100 Inggris turun 1%. Namun di Asia, sentimen sangat positif; Nikkei 225 Jepang mencapai rekor penutupan di angka 71.053,49, dan Kospi Korea Selatan melonjak 2,3% ke rekor tertinggi lainnya, didukung oleh raksasa teknologi Samsung Electronics dan SK Hynix.

Poin-Poin Penting

  • Relief Geopolitik: Kesepakatan AS-Iran untuk menegosiasikan penyelesaian nuklir telah berhasil menurunkan harga minyak dan meredakan kekhawatiran rantai pasokan di Selat Hormuz.
  • Momentum Teknologi: Lonjakan masif Intel sebesar 8,7%, yang didorong oleh kesepakatan manufaktur berbasis di AS dengan Apple, bertindak sebagai katalis utama bagi Nasdaq.
  • Kehati-hatian Moneter: Terlepas dari reli tersebut, mayoritas anggota Fed masih lebih menyukai suku bunga yang lebih tinggi tahun ini untuk mengelola inflasi, sehingga mempertahankan lapisan ketidakpastian bagi para investor.