Wall Street Rebounds: US Stocks Surge as US-Iran Deal Lowers Oil Prices

US equity markets staged a strong recovery on Thursday, erasing much of the previous session's losses as geopolitical tensions eased. A significant breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and falling energy costs have bolstered investor confidence, driving major indices higher.

Geopolitical Breakthrough Drives Oil Prices Down

The primary catalyst for the market rebound was the initial agreement between Washington and Tehran to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal initiates a 60-day negotiating process focused on Iran's nuclear programme, where Iran has agreed to dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for the waiver of US-backed sanctions on oil exports.

This diplomatic progress triggered a sharp decline in energy markets. Brent crude fell by $1.19 to $78.36 a barrel, while the US benchmark crude dropped $1.56 to $74.45 a barrel. While prices remain above the pre-war benchmark of $70, they have retreated significantly from the $100-plus levels witnessed just weeks ago. This drop in input costs provided a much-needed boost to travel and transport sectors, with Delta, United, and American Airlines seeing gains between 1.5% and 2%.

Tech Giants Lead the Rally

The Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 1.2% advance, fueled largely by a massive surge in the semiconductor sector. Intel shares skyrocketed by 8.7% following an announcement by President Donald Trump that the chipmaker had agreed to manufacture chips for Apple within the United States. This news comes as Apple navigates potential price hikes driven by global memory chip shortages.

In contrast to the semiconductor boom, the space sector faced headwinds. SpaceX extended its recent downward trend, falling 3.2% in premarket trading following a nearly 5% decline on Wednesday.

Despite the bullish sentiment, investors remain cautious regarding the US Federal Reserve's next moves. The market is closely analyzing signals from the latest policy meeting, where nine out of 18 members of the rate-setting committee signaled support for higher interest rates this year to combat persistent inflation. Specifically, six members backed two or more quarter-point increases.

Si bien el objetivo de las tasas más altas es frenar la inflación, estas plantean el riesgo de ralentizar la actividad económica. El presidente de la Fed, Kevin Warsh, ha indicado una revisión de las estrategias de comunicación del banco central, pero no llegó a proporcionar un pronóstico específico de las tasas de interés para 2026.

Sentimiento del mercado global

Mientras que Wall Street y los principales mercados asiáticos repuntaron, los mercados europeos experimentaron un ligero retroceso. El DAX de Alemania cayó un 0,1%, el CAC 40 de Francia bajó un 0,2% y el FTSE 100 de Gran Bretaña descendió un 1%. En Asia, sin embargo, el optimismo fue elevado; el Nikkei 225 de Japón alcanzó un cierre récord de 71.053,49, y el Kospi de Corea del Sur subió un 2,3% hasta alcanzar otro máximo histórico, impulsado por los líderes tecnológicos Samsung Electronics y SK Hynix.

Puntos clave

  • Alivio geopolítico: El acuerdo entre EE. UU. e Irán para reabrir el estrecho de Ormuz ha logrado reducir los precios del petróleo, brindando un respiro a sectores sensibles a la energía, como las aerolíneas.
  • Impulso tecnológico: El salto del 8,7% de Intel tras las noticias sobre la fabricación en EE. UU. para Apple sirvió como un importante motor para el aumento del 1,2% del Nasdaq.
  • Cautela de la Fed: A pesar del repunte, los participantes del mercado están vigilando un sesgo restrictivo (hawkish) dentro de la Fed, con una mayoría de miembros apoyando nuevas subidas de tasas este año.