Gold Prices Surge as Iran-US Interim Deal Triggers Oil Price Drop

Gold prices staged a significant comeback on Thursday, rising over 1% to recoup previous losses as geopolitical tensions shifted following a breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran. This movement comes as global markets react to a new interim agreement designed to de-escalate conflict and stabilize energy markets.

Geopolitical Shifts: The 14-Point Iran-US Agreement

The primary driver for recent market volatility has been the release of the text regarding an interim agreement between the United States and Iran. The 14-point deal extends the ceasefire initially announced in April for an additional 60 days, providing a window for both nations to negotiate a final, permanent truce.

While the agreement offers a path toward stability, the political landscape remains high-stakes. U.S. President Donald Trump has maintained a firm stance, explicitly threatening to resume military attacks and target Iranian officials should the nation fail to honor its commitments under the new framework.

Commodities Market Reaction: Gold and Precious Metals Rally

Following a 1.7% decline on Wednesday, spot gold rebounded strongly, rising 1.5% to reach $4,322.41 per ounce. This recovery highlights gold's role as a critical hedge during periods of shifting geopolitical certainty. While spot gold climbed, U.S. gold futures for August delivery saw a slight dip of 0.9%, trading at $4,343.10.

The rally was not limited to gold. Other precious metals saw significant gains as investors recalibrated their portfolios:

Simultaneously, oil prices fell, reversing the gains seen on Wednesday after the news of the potential ceasefire began to circulate, reducing the immediate "war premium" in energy markets.

Federal Reserve Outlook and Inflation Concerns

Adding a layer of complexity to the market is the recent stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Although the central bank held interest rates steady this week, the underlying projections suggest a more hawkish turn ahead. With inflation remaining stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, policymakers are signaling potential interest rate hikes later this year.

Данные указывают на растущий консенсус среди официальных лиц: девять из 19 лиц, принимающих решения, теперь считают, что повышение ставки будет необходимым до конца года. Этот «ястребиный» настрой уже начал оказывать влияние на более широкие рынки, способствуя падению основных фондовых индексов, росту доходности облигаций и укреплению доллара США.

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