Hisa za RIL Zimepanda kwa 6% kwa Siku 3; Morgan Stanley Inaona Uwezekano wa Kupanda kwa 38%
Hisa za Reliance Industries (RIL) zimepata ongezeko kubwa, zikipanda kwa 6% ndani ya siku tatu tu huku matarajio ya wawekezaji yakiongezeka kuelekea Mkutano wa 49 wa Mwaka wa Kampuni (AGM). Msukumo huu wa hivi karibuni umeongeza zaidi ya ₹1 lakh crore kwenye thamani ya soko ya kampuni hiyo kubwa, ukionyesha imani kubwa katika matangazo ya kimkakati yanayotarajiwa kutoka kwa kikundi hicho.
Ongezeko la Soko na Upanuzi wa Thamani ya Soko
Kampuni hiyo kubwa inayoongozwa na Mukesh Ambani iliona hisa zake zikipanda hadi ₹1,333.40 kwenye NSE Jumanne hii, ikionyesha kupona kwa kasi kutoka kwenye kiwango chake cha chini kabisa cha wiki 52 cha ₹1,253.20 kilichorekodiwa Juni 11. Ongezeko hili limekuwa la haraka, huku hisa ikipata takriban 2% Jumanne pekee. Licha ya kushuka kwa takriban 16% hadi sasa katika mwaka wa 2026, utendaji wa hivi karibuni wa hisa hiyo umeamsha tena matumaini, ukisukuma jumla ya thamani ya soko ya RIL kupita alama ya ₹18 lakh crore.
Mtazamo wa Morgan Stanley wa Matumaini: Lengo la ₹1,803
Licha ya ongezeko la hivi karibuni la bei, kampuni ya uwekezaji ya kimataifa Morgan Stanley bado ina matumaini makubwa kuhusu Reliance Industries. Ikiwa imedumisha daraja la 'Overweight', kampuni hiyo imeweka bei lengo ya ₹1,803, ikidokeza ongezeko kubwa la 38% kutoka viwango vya sasa.
Mtazamo wa kampuni hiyo ya uwekezaji wa matumaini unategemea mambo kadhaa ya msingi:
- Uimara wa O2C: Sera za usalama wa nishati na masoko makali zaidi ya kusafisha mafuta yanatarajiwa kuweka tofauti za bei za bidhaa (product spreads) imara kimuundo. Morgan Stanley ilibainisha kuwa uwezo wa RIL kuchakata aina nzito na zenye asidi za mafuta ghafi (heavy and sour crude grades), pamoja na mkoba wa vyanzo mbalimbali, unaiweka katika nafasi nzuri ya kukabiliana na gharama kubwa zaidi za usafirishaji.
- Urejesho wa Mzunguko wa Kemikali: Kampuni inatarajia ongezeko la 6-8% katika mapato mwaka huu, likichochewa na mzunguko wa kemikali unaorejea na malighafi zenye faida kama ethane ya Marekani na naphtha ya ndani (captive naphtha).
- Pengo la Thamani: RIL kwa sasa inafanya biashara kwa 1.1x EV/IC, ikionyesha punguzo la 68% ikilinganishwa na washindani wa ndani katika sekta zote—pengo la thamani linalofanana na lile lililoonekana mwaka 2018 kabla ya kipindi cha utendaji mkubwa sana.
"Monetisation 4.0" na Mpaka Mpya wa Nishati
Beyond the traditional Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) business, Morgan Stanley highlighted the ongoing "Monetisation 4.0" phase. As RIL ramps up solar module and cell manufacturing, along with energy storage, the company is beginning to monetize significant investments that the brokerage believes are not yet fully reflected in the stock's current valuation. Furthermore, the company's foray into AI monetization and data center investments is identified as a key upcoming driver for long-term growth.
High Stakes Ahead of the 49th AGM
The upcoming Annual General Meeting on Friday is expected to be a watershed moment for shareholders. Investors are looking for concrete updates on several high-priority fronts, including the much-anticipated Jio Platforms IPO, retail expansion strategies, and the progress of the new energy business. Chairman Mukesh Ambani's address is anticipated to provide clarity on the group's roadmap for telecom, retail, and green energy, which will likely dictate the stock's trajectory in the coming quarters.
Key Takeaways
- Massive Valuation Upside: Morgan Stanley predicts a 38% upside with a target price of ₹1,803, citing a significant discount compared to domestic peers.
- Diversified Growth Drivers: Earnings are expected to be supported by strong O2C margins, a recovering chemical cycle, and the ramp-up of new energy and solar manufacturing.
- AGM Anticipation: The 49th AGM is a critical catalyst, with markets eyeing updates on the Jio Platforms IPO and the group's aggressive new energy roadmap.