SpaceX Valuation Hits $2.85 Trillion, Surpassing Amazon and Microsoft

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has delivered a historic performance in the public markets, catapulting its valuation toward the $3 trillion milestone shortly after its blockbuster IPO. The rocket and AI powerhouse has stunned Wall Street by briefly overtaking Microsoft and Amazon, signaling a massive shift in market leadership.

A Meteoric Rise in the Public Markets

Following its highly anticipated debut, SpaceX (SPCX) shares surged by 14.3% on Tuesday, reaching a price of $220. This represents a staggering 62% increase from its initial IPO price of $135. With these gains, the company's market capitalization has climbed to approximately $2.85 trillion.

This rapid ascent has fundamentally reordered the hierarchy of global tech giants. At its peak during Tuesday's session, SpaceX briefly exceeded Microsoft’s $2.92 trillion valuation and significantly outpaced Amazon’s $2.64 trillion market cap. The sheer volume of trading was unprecedented; over $23.1 billion worth of SpaceX shares changed hands by mid-morning, dwarfing the combined trading volumes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple.

Speculation vs. Fundamentals: The Valuation Debate

Despite the astronomical market cap, analysts are raising red flags regarding the company's underlying financials. Unlike many Big Tech peers that report massive profits, SpaceX reported sales of $18.67 billion last year but posted a net loss of $4.94 billion. This loss is attributed to its merger with the money-losing AI firm, xAI.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted that the current valuation "makes absolutely no sense" from a fundamental standpoint, suggesting much of the price action is driven by speculation and the expectation of continued momentum. Furthermore, the company’s recent announcement to acquire software firm Anysphere for $60 billion adds another layer of complexity to its aggressive growth strategy.

Index Inclusion and the Path Ahead

While volatility is expected due to a relatively small "float" (the number of shares available for public trading), several technical factors could sustain the rally. SpaceX is poised for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, which will force passive funds and ETFs to purchase large quantities of the stock. Additionally, FTSE Russell and MSCI are scheduled to add SpaceX to their indexes on June 26 and June 29, respectively.

The liquidity of the stock is also set to increase. Following the IPO, underwriters exercised the "greenshoe" option, raising total IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion, up from the initial $75 billion. As options trading begins with strikes ranging from $25 to $380, investors now have even more avenues to bet on the volatile trajectory of this aerospace and AI giant.

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