SpaceX Valuation Hits $2.85 Trillion, Surpassing Amazon and Microsoft

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has delivered a historic performance in the public markets, catapulting its valuation toward the $3 trillion milestone shortly after its blockbuster IPO. The rocket and AI powerhouse has stunned Wall Street by briefly overtaking Microsoft and Amazon, signaling a massive shift in market leadership.

A Meteoric Rise in the Public Markets

Following its highly anticipated debut, SpaceX (SPCX) shares surged by 14.3% on Tuesday, reaching a price of $220. This represents a staggering 62% increase from its initial IPO price of $135. With these gains, the company's market capitalization has climbed to approximately $2.85 trillion.

This rapid ascent has fundamentally reordered the hierarchy of global tech giants. At its peak during Tuesday's session, SpaceX briefly exceeded Microsoft’s $2.92 trillion valuation and significantly outpaced Amazon’s $2.64 trillion market cap. The sheer volume of trading was unprecedented; over $23.1 billion worth of SpaceX shares changed hands by mid-morning, dwarfing the combined trading volumes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple.

Speculation vs. Fundamentals: The Valuation Debate

Despite the astronomical market cap, analysts are raising red flags regarding the company's underlying financials. Unlike many Big Tech peers that report massive profits, SpaceX reported sales of $18.67 billion last year but posted a net loss of $4.94 billion. This loss is attributed to its merger with the money-losing AI firm, xAI.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted that the current valuation "makes absolutely no sense" from a fundamental standpoint, suggesting much of the price action is driven by speculation and the expectation of continued momentum. Furthermore, the company’s recent announcement to acquire software firm Anysphere for $60 billion adds another layer of complexity to its aggressive growth strategy.

Index Inclusion and the Path Ahead

Während aufgrund eines relativ geringen „Floats“ (der Anzahl der für den öffentlichen Handel verfügbaren Aktien) mit Volatilität zu rechnen ist, könnten mehrere technische Faktoren die Rallye aufrechterhalten. SpaceX steht vor einer beschleunigten Aufnahme in den Nasdaq 100, was passive Fonds und ETFs dazu zwingen wird, große Mengen der Aktie zu kaufen. Zudem sollen FTSE Russell und MSCI SpaceX jeweils am 26. Juni bzw. am 29. Juni in ihre Indizes aufnehmen.

Auch die Liquidität der Aktie wird voraussichtlich steigen. Im Anschluss an den Börsengang (IPO) machten die Underwriter die „Greenshoe“-Option wahr, wodurch sich der gesamte IPO-Erlös von ursprünglich 75 Mrd. $ auf 85,7 Mrd. $ erhöhte. Da der Optionshandel mit Basispreisen (Strikes) zwischen 25 $ und 380 $ beginnt, haben Anleger nun noch mehr Möglichkeiten, auf den volatilen Kursverlauf dieses Giganten aus den Bereichen Luft- und Raumfahrt sowie KI zu setzen.

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