𝗥𝗕𝗜 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁 $𝟳𝟱 𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝗥𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗲

The Reserve Bank of India introduced new monetary policy measures. The moves aim to draw foreign capital and ease pressure on the rupee.

Analysts expect large inflows:

  • SBI Research expects at least $40 billion in inflows. SBI sees the rupee moving toward 92 to 93 against the dollar.
  • Kotak Securities expects $50 billion to $75 billion in inflows.

The Monetary Policy Committee left the repo rate at 5.25%. The stance stays neutral. Most analysts expect no change in August.

The RBI cut its FY27 growth forecast. Real GDP growth is now seen at 6.6%. The prior estimate was higher by 30 basis points. The third quarter growth forecast fell to 6.5%.

Inflation estimates moved up. The FY27 CPI inflation projection is now 5.1%. The prior figure was lower by 50 basis points. Core CPI inflation is now seen at 4.7%. Quarterly inflation for Q3 is pegged at 5.9%. Q4 inflation is seen at 5.4%.

SBI Research said the policy shows a stronger focus on inflation vigilance and external sector defense. The RBI said currency moves do not always match fundamentals. The bank rejected views of a drop to the 100 level.

New capital inflow measures include:

  • The Fully Accessible Route now covers 15 year, 30 year, and 40 year government bonds. The 30% short maturity cap is gone.
  • Rs 1.5 lakh crore in new long term bonds will be issued. Rs 4.06 lakh crore in headroom remains under the general route.
  • Tax breaks on interest and capital gains for foreign portfolio investors will add Rs 4,000 to 5,000 crore plus Rs 500 to 1,000 crore in benefits.
  • Kotak Securities noted relaxed equity investment limits for NRIs, OCIs, and PROIs without SEBI registration.

On external borrowing:

  • The RBI will pay full hedging costs at 2.5% per year for new 3 to 5 year FCNR(B) deposits until September 30, 2026. SLR and CRR costs are also covered.
  • SBI expects banks to offer rates above 5.5%. A similar program in 2013 raised $34 billion.
  • A concessional forex swap facility for 3 to 5 year PSU external commercial borrowings runs until September 30. This aids firms such as PFC, REC, and NTPC. ECB and FCCB inflows fell 30% in FY26 to $42.9 billion.

The RBI cut the export proceeds timeline to 9 months from 15 months. This change speeds up forex inflows.

Les marchés ont réagi suite à l'annonce :

  • La roupie a gagné 50 paise.
  • Les rendements des obligations d'État pour les titres de 10 à 40 ans ont chuté de 4 à 5 points de base.
  • Les rendements des obligations d'entreprise pour les titres de 2 à 3 ans ont chuté de 20 à 25 points de base.
  • La courbe OIS a baissé de 10 à 15 points de base.

Concernant les taux :

  • SBI Research s'attend à ce que la RBI fasse abstraction des données sur l'inflation et maintienne les taux inchangés en août. Les préoccupations liées à la croissance l'emportent sur la pression au resserrement.
  • Kotak Securities prévoit environ 50 points de base de hausse des taux au cours de l'exercice 2027. L'inflation est estimée à 5,1 %. Les marchés ont déjà intégré une grande partie de ces prévisions.

La liquidité du système bancaire reste excédentaire à environ 1,39 lakh crore de roupies en juin. Les retraits de trésorerie du gouvernement et les retours saisonniers de devises pendant la mousson soutiennent cette tendance.