𝗥𝗕𝗜 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁 $𝟳𝟱 𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝗥𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗲

The Reserve Bank of India introduced new monetary policy measures. The moves aim to draw foreign capital and ease pressure on the rupee.

Analysts expect large inflows:

  • SBI Research expects at least $40 billion in inflows. SBI sees the rupee moving toward 92 to 93 against the dollar.
  • Kotak Securities expects $50 billion to $75 billion in inflows.

The Monetary Policy Committee left the repo rate at 5.25%. The stance stays neutral. Most analysts expect no change in August.

The RBI cut its FY27 growth forecast. Real GDP growth is now seen at 6.6%. The prior estimate was higher by 30 basis points. The third quarter growth forecast fell to 6.5%.

Inflation estimates moved up. The FY27 CPI inflation projection is now 5.1%. The prior figure was lower by 50 basis points. Core CPI inflation is now seen at 4.7%. Quarterly inflation for Q3 is pegged at 5.9%. Q4 inflation is seen at 5.4%.

SBI Research said the policy shows a stronger focus on inflation vigilance and external sector defense. The RBI said currency moves do not always match fundamentals. The bank rejected views of a drop to the 100 level.

New capital inflow measures include:

  • The Fully Accessible Route now covers 15 year, 30 year, and 40 year government bonds. The 30% short maturity cap is gone.
  • Rs 1.5 lakh crore in new long term bonds will be issued. Rs 4.06 lakh crore in headroom remains under the general route.
  • Tax breaks on interest and capital gains for foreign portfolio investors will add Rs 4,000 to 5,000 crore plus Rs 500 to 1,000 crore in benefits.
  • Kotak Securities noted relaxed equity investment limits for NRIs, OCIs, and PROIs without SEBI registration.

On external borrowing:

  • The RBI will pay full hedging costs at 2.5% per year for new 3 to 5 year FCNR(B) deposits until September 30, 2026. SLR and CRR costs are also covered.
  • SBI expects banks to offer rates above 5.5%. A similar program in 2013 raised $34 billion.
  • A concessional forex swap facility for 3 to 5 year PSU external commercial borrowings runs until September 30. This aids firms such as PFC, REC, and NTPC. ECB and FCCB inflows fell 30% in FY26 to $42.9 billion.

The RBI cut the export proceeds timeline to 9 months from 15 months. This change speeds up forex inflows.

발표 이후 시장 반응은 다음과 같습니다:

  • 루피화 가치가 50파이즈 상승했습니다.
  • 1040년 만기 국채 수익률이 45bp 하락했습니다.
  • 23년 만기 회사채 수익률이 2025bp 하락했습니다.
  • OIS 커브가 10~15bp 하락했습니다.

금리 관련 사항:

  • SBI Research는 RBI가 인플레이션 데이터를 넘어서서 8월 금리를 동결할 것으로 예상합니다. 성장 우려가 긴축 압력보다 더 크게 작용하고 있습니다.
  • Kotak Securities는 2027 회계연도(FY27) 동안 약 50bp의 금리 인상이 있을 것으로 예상합니다. 인플레이션은 5.1%로 전망됩니다. 시장은 이미 이러한 전망의 상당 부분을 가격에 반영했습니다.

은행 시스템 유동성은 6월 기준 약 1.39라크 크로르(lakh crore) 루피의 흑자 상태를 유지하고 있습니다. 정부의 현금 인출과 몬순 기간의 계절적 통화 환류가 이러한 추세를 뒷받침하고 있습니다.