Gold and Silver Prices Surge as US Jobs Data Eases Inflation Fears

Precious metal prices witnessed a significant rally on the MCX this Friday, driven by cooling economic indicators from the United States. As investors reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, both gold and silver have seen substantial gains in the domestic market.

US Labour Market Data Triggers Bullish Sentiment

The primary catalyst for the recent surge is the weaker-than-expected U.S. labour market data. According to the U.S. Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 jobs last month, falling significantly short of the 110,000 jobs anticipated by economists in a Reuters poll.

This slowdown has shifted the market narrative regarding inflation and monetary policy. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a 54% probability of a rate increase, a notable drop from the 66% probability seen prior to the payrolls report. Since higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, the prospect of a more dovish Federal Reserve has made bullion highly attractive to investors.

MCX Performance: Gold and Silver Hit High Levels

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), both metals showed strong upward momentum. MCX silver futures for September 2026 delivery jumped by Rs 4,912 (2%), reaching Rs 2,38,216 per kg. Gold futures for August 2026 delivery also climbed by Rs 2,219, trading at Rs 1,47,977 per 10 grams.

This rally marks the first weekly gain for bullion of 2.3% since late May. Globally, the trend is mirrored in the spot markets, where spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,179.94 per ounce, and spot silver gained 2.3% to reach $62.43 per ounce.

Expert Analysis and Trading Outlook

Market experts warn that while the momentum is positive, volatility remains a key factor. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart suggests that fluctuations in crude oil prices, the US dollar index, and bond yields will continue to influence prices.

For traders looking at technical levels, Jain provides the following benchmarks:

Gold Outlook:

  • MCX Support: Rs 1,44,400 – Rs 1,43,350
  • MCX Resistance: Rs 1,47,100 – Rs 1,48,800
  • International Support: $4,084 – $4,040 per troy ounce

Silver Outlook:

  • MCX Support: Rs 2,33,000 – Rs 2,26,600
  • MCX Resistance: Rs 2,37,700 – Rs 2,41,000
  • International Support: $59.40 – $58.00 per troy ounce

Local Market Snapshot

In Indian physical markets, gold prices vary by city. In Delhi, 24-carat pure gold is trading at approximately Rs 1,15,152 per 8 grams, while Mumbai and Hyderabad report slightly lower rates for 24-carat gold at Rs 1,15,032 per 8 grams. Chennai currently holds the highest premium, with 24-carat gold priced at Rs 1,16,952 per 8 grams.

Key Takeaways

  • US Economic Impact: Softer-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls (57,000 vs 110,000 expected) have lowered expectations for Fed rate hikes, boosting non-yielding assets.
  • Bullion Rally: MCX silver surged by 2% to over Rs 2.38 lakh/kg, while gold climbed toward the Rs 1.48 lakh/10g resistance level.
  • Volatility Warning: Experts advise caution as gold and silver remain sensitive to shifts in the US dollar index, crude oil, and bond yields.