India’s Crude Oil Inventory Rebounds to Near One-Year High

India has successfully replenished its strategic and commercial crude oil stockpiles, bringing inventory levels close to their highest point in nearly a year. This sharp recovery follows a period of significant depletion caused by supply disruptions during the US-Iran conflict, which had previously threatened the nation's energy security.

From Depletion to Recovery: The Inventory Trajectory

The volatility in India's crude stocks was directly linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At the end of February, just before the US-Iran conflict intensified, India’s stockpiles stood at a healthy 107 million barrels. However, as import flows were disrupted, refiners were forced to draw down existing reserves to maintain continuous operations.

By the end of March, stocks had dipped to 95.5 million barrels, reaching a low of 90.5 million barrels by the close of April. The recovery has been swift; according to data from Kpler, India's crude oil inventory surged to an estimated 104 million barrels by the end of June. With India consuming approximately 5 million barrels of crude per day, the current inventory level is sufficient to meet roughly 21 days of national demand.

Russia Emerges as India's Dominant Energy Partner

The geopolitical shift has fundamentally altered India’s import basket. As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatened nearly 40% of India's crude imports, refiners aggressively diversified their sources. Russia has emerged as the primary beneficiary of this shift, solidifying its position as India's largest crude oil supplier.

In June, Russian crude imports crossed a historic milestone of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbd), accounting for more than half of India's total crude purchases. Over the four-month period of conflict, India imported more than 240 million barrels from Russia. To put this dominance into perspective, this volume is more than four times the 58 million barrels imported from the UAE, India's second-largest supplier, during the same period.

Stabilizing the Energy Landscape

Despite the initial turbulence, the domestic energy market has remained largely stable. While there were isolated reports of fuel rationing in certain states—which the government attributed to panic buying and shifts toward state-owned outlets—Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri confirmed that there were no widespread disruptions or fuel shortages at the consumer level.

The easing of tensions, following an interim agreement between the US and Iran and the partial resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has further stabilized the market. While Russia remains the dominant player, India continues to maintain a diversified supply chain, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia remaining the second and third-largest suppliers, respectively, and Venezuela entering the top five.

Key Takeaways

• Rapid Stockpile Rebound: India’s crude inventory rose from a low of 90.5 million barrels in April to an estimated 104 million barrels in June, providing a 21-day cushion against demand.
• Russian Dominance: Russia has become India's primary energy partner, supplying over 2.5 mbd in June and accounting for more than 50% of total crude imports.
• Diversified Supply Chain: Despite the heavy reliance on Russian oil, India has successfully mitigated risks by maintaining strong import ties with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.