Wall Street Rallies as US-Iran Deal Sends Oil Prices Tumbling

Global financial markets experienced a significant surge on Monday following a tentative agreement between the United States and Iran to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical breakthrough has sparked optimism regarding reduced inflationary pressures and the stabilization of global energy supplies.

Energy Relief Triggers Market Surge

The announcement sent shockwaves through the commodities market, with Brent crude oil prices plummeting by 4.8% to $83.18 per barrel. This decline brings energy prices back to levels seen in early March, a substantial drop from the $100-plus peaks witnessed just weeks ago. While energy prices remain above the pre-conflict level of $70, the downward trend offers much-needed relief to households and businesses burdened by high costs for fuel, food, and fertilizer.

The deal, which is expected to be formally signed this Friday in Switzerland, aims to restore the flow of crude oil through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Although industry experts warn that normalizing energy flows may take several months, the immediate sentiment in the markets has shifted from fear to relief.

AI and Travel Sectors Lead the Rally

Wall Street responded enthusiastically to the news, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2.3%, the S&P 500 rising 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 638 points (1.2%). Two specific sectors emerged as primary beneficiaries:

  • Travel and Aviation: Companies heavily impacted by fuel costs saw massive gains. American Airlines climbed 7%, Carnival advanced 5.7%, and United Airlines rose 5.2%.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI): After recent volatility, AI stocks rebounded strongly. Micron Technology surged 7.8%, AMD rose 7%, and Nvidia advanced 2.7%. Notably, SpaceX—the rocket company owned by Elon Musk—climbed 5.4% in its second day of trading, boasting a market valuation exceeding $2.1 trillion.

Implications for Interest Rates and Inflation

The drop in oil prices has significantly altered the outlook for US monetary policy. As energy costs ease, the threat of persistent inflation diminishes, leading to a decline in Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.45% from 4.48%.

Según los datos de CME Group, los operadores han reducido la probabilidad de una subida de tipos este año del 71 % al solo 55 %. Este cambio proporciona un respiro muy necesario de cara a la reunión de política monetaria de la Reserva Federal de EE. UU. de este miércoles, la primera bajo la dirección del nuevo presidente Kevin Warsh. Si bien el presidente Trump ha presionado para obtener tipos más bajos, el mercado está descontando ahora un entorno inflacionario más estable.

Optimismo en los mercados globales

El repunte no se limitó a EE. UU. En Asia, el Nikkei 225 de Japón subió un 5 % hasta alcanzar un máximo histórico, mientras que el Kospi de Corea del Sur ascendió un 5,2 %, impulsado por gigantes de la IA como Samsung Electronics. Los analistas sugieren que las compras de inversores extranjeros están siendo impulsadas por la expectativa de una desescalada de las tensiones en Oriente Medio.

Puntos clave

  • Caída de los precios del petróleo: El crudo Brent cayó un 4,8 % hasta los 83,18 dólares por barril tras el acuerdo de alto el fuego entre EE. UU. e Irán, aliviando las preocupaciones sobre la inflación mundial.
  • Ganancias sectoriales: Las acciones de viajes (American Airlines +7 %) y las acciones de IA (Micron +7,8 %) lideraron el repunte del mercado en Wall Street.
  • Cae la probabilidad de una subida de tipos: La probabilidad de una subida de los tipos de interés en EE. UU. este año descendió del 71 % al 55 % a medida que se enfriaron las expectativas de inflación impulsadas por la energía.