Nomura Raises Adani Ports Target Price to Rs 2,080: 3 Key Growth Drivers

International brokerage firm Nomura has increased its target price for Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) to Rs 2,080 from the previous Rs 1,850, representing a roughly 13% hike. Maintaining its "Buy" rating, the brokerage suggests a potential upside of 15% from current market levels, driven by optimistic long-term growth projections.

Massive Capacity Expansion and Revenue Targets

A primary driver behind Nomura's bullish stance is the company's aggressive roadmap for capacity expansion. Management has outlined a plan to scale domestic port capacity to 1,000 MT by CY30, up from the projected 653 MT in FY26. This represents a significant 1.5x increase in capacity.

To support this physical growth, APSEZ has provided ambitious guidance for its various business segments between FY26 and FY31. The company expects EBITDA Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGRs) of 18% in the ports business, 27% in logistics, and 19% in the marine segment. Furthermore, the company aims for a revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow from operations (CFO) CAGR of approximately 18% to 19% during this period.

Strategic Capex and Improved Capital Efficiency

To fuel this expansion, Adani Ports is prepared to commit significant capital. The company has planned a massive capital expenditure (Capex) outlay ranging between Rs 90,000 crore and Rs 1 lakh crore over the five years leading up to FY31.

Crucially, Nomura notes that this growth is not just about scale, but also about efficiency. Management has reiterated its commitment to improving the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) by 1 percentage point annually. This focus on ensuring that expansion remains value-accretive is a key factor in Nomura's decision to marginally increase its FY27 and FY28 EBITDA forecasts by 1% and 2%, respectively.

Favourable Industry Tailwinds in India

The broader macroeconomic environment in India provides a strong tailwind for the country's largest port operator. Nomura anticipates that India's freight and logistics market will expand at a CAGR of 8.6% between CY25 and CY31.

この成長は、貿易量の増加、製造活動の活発化、eコマースの普及拡大、そして貨物輸送の継続的なフォーマル化など、いくつかの構造的な変化によって推進されると予想されています。サプライチェーンがより組織化され、インフラ需要が高まるにつれ、APSEZはこの拡大する物流の機会において、より大きなシェアを獲得できる有利な立場にあります。

注視すべきリスク

楽観的な見通しの一方で、証券会社は投資シナリオに影響を与える可能性のある特定の懸念事項を指摘しています。これには、貨物取扱量の成長が予想を下回ることや、地政学的緊張の高まりによって世界の貿易フローが混乱し、国内の物流に影響を与える可能性などが含まれます。

主なポイント

• 目標株価の引き上げ: 野村証券は、15%の上昇余地があるとして、APSEZの目標株価を2,080ルピーに引き上げ、強力な「買い」評価を維持しました。
• 積極的な拡大: 同社は、2031年度までに最大1兆ルピーの設備投資（Capex）を計画しており、これに裏打ちされる形で、2030年までに港湾能力を1,000MTに拡大することを目指しています。
• 力強い成長見通し: インドの物流セクターにおける予測年平均成長率（CAGR）8.6%に支えられ、経営陣は港湾、物流、海洋の各セグメントにおいて大幅なEBITDAのCAGRを見込んでいます。