Nomura Raises Adani Ports Target Price to Rs 2,080: 3 Growth Drivers

International brokerage firm Nomura has upgraded its target price for Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) to Rs 2,080, up from the previous Rs 1,850. This 13% revision comes with a sustained "Buy" rating, implying a potential upside of approximately 15% from current market levels.

Favourable Industry Tailwinds and Logistics Growth

Nomura’s bullish stance is anchored in the long-term structural advantages within India's freight and logistics sector. The brokerage anticipates that the Indian logistics market will expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.6% between CY25 and CY31.

Several macroeconomic factors are expected to fuel this expansion, including rising trade volumes, increased manufacturing activity, and the rapid penetration of e-commerce. Furthermore, the formalisation of freight movement and the demand for highly organised, efficient cargo-handling infrastructure position APSEZ as a primary beneficiary of India's burgeoning supply chain requirements.

Ambitious Capacity Expansion and Management Guidance

A significant driver for the upward revision is the company's aggressive roadmap for capacity scaling. Management has outlined plans to increase domestic port capacity from 653 MT in FY26 to 1,000 MT by CY30—a massive 1.5x increase.

This scale-up is expected to drive impressive growth metrics. Specifically, the company targets a domestic port traffic CAGR of 14% and an overall port traffic CAGR of 16% from FY26 levels. Nomura’s analysts have also noted strong guidance for segment-specific EBITDA CAGRs between FY26 and FY31:

To support this massive scale, APSEZ plans a capital expenditure (Capex) outlay of between Rs 90,000 crore and Rs 1 lakh crore through FY31. Importantly, management aims to improve its Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) by 1 percentage point annually, ensuring that this rapid expansion remains value-accretive for shareholders.

Robust Financial Performance and Market Outlook

この証券会社の楽観的な見方は、APSEZの最近の財務的な勢いに裏付けられています。3月期決算の四半期において、同社は連結純利益が前年同期比10%増の3,329億ルピーであったと報告しました。売上高も前年同期比26%の大幅増となり、2026年度第4四半期（Q4FY26）は10,737億ルピーに達しました。

見通しは引き続きポジティブであるものの、野村（Nomura）は投資家に対し、いくつかの逆風について注意を促しています。潜在的なリスクとしては、貨物量の伸びが予想を下回ることや、地政学的緊張の高まりによる世界的な貿易フローの混乱などが挙げられます。それでもなお、同社のこれまでの実行実績を考慮し、野村は2026年度から2029年度（FY26-29）の期間において、EBITDAの年平均成長率（CAGR）を19%と予測しています。

主なポイント