私立银行将受益于强劲的信贷增长，精选标的是关键

印度私立银行业正进入一个重新受到关注的阶段，随着信贷增长达到令人瞩目的水平，尽管投资者仍在应对估值方面的担忧。虽然基本面指标依然强劲，但专家建议，“一刀切”的方法将不再奏效，因此需要采取高度精选的策略。

强劲的信贷增长推动行业前景

根据 Axis Securities 的 Dnyanada Vaidya 的说法，银行业正处于显著的增长势头之中。最近的 RBI 数据显示，信贷增长强劲，超过了 17%，这是多年来表现最强劲的一次。这一趋势为私立贷款机构提供了坚实的基础，预计领先银行在未来两年的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 将保持在约 15% 左右。

此外，资产质量基本保持良好，这有助于将信贷成本控制在一定范围内。虽然利润率近期面临挑战，但市场普遍乐观地认为，随着利率周期开始转变，大型私立银行已做好准备，有望实现利润率的回升。

存款与信贷的不匹配及宏观风险

尽管增长数据乐观，但贷款与储蓄之间出现了严重的失衡。当前数据显示，存款增长维持在 12% 至 12.2% 左右，显著落后于 17% 以上的信贷增长。这种不匹配构成了银行面临的主要风险，因为它们正努力筹集足够的流动性来支持不断扩大的贷款规模。

其他不利因素可能包括：

• 利率动态： 任何意外的加息都可能减缓整体信贷增长。
• 地缘政治影响： 持续的西亚冲突可能会影响 MSME 和对石油敏感的企业部门，其影响可能在第三季度末或第四季度初显现。

战略性股票选择：领跑者 vs. 落后者

投资格局正变得日益两极分化。虽然中型银行近期表现优于大型同行，但焦点正在重新转向大盘股的稳定性以及特定的增长故事。

• Private Bank Picks: Axis Securities expresses a preference for ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, citing strong growth opportunities, robust deposit franchises, and attractive valuations.
• The HDFC Bank Overhang: Unlike its peers, HDFC Bank remains off the top picks list due to challenges in deposit mobilization and a lack of clarity regarding leadership transitions for the Chairman and MD/CEO roles.
• PSU and Mid-cap Alternatives: In the public sector, SBI remains the standout performer due to growth delivery that exceeds the systemic average. In the mid-cap space, Federal Bank is preferred, while Ujjivan Small Finance Bank is the pick for smaller players.

NBFCs and Vehicle Financing

The outlook for Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) is also turning constructive heading into FY27. Large players like Bajaj Finance are expected to see growth gravitate back toward a 24% CAGR, supported by stabilizing asset quality. In the vehicle financing segment, recent price corrections have made valuations more attractive, with Shriram Finance preferred over competitors like Cholamandalam due to its improving capital position.

Key Takeaways

• Credit-Deposit Gap: A significant mismatch exists between 17%+ credit growth and ~12% deposit growth, which remains a key monitorable for investors.
• Preferred Large Caps: ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank are top picks in the private space due to their balance sheet strength and valuation levels.
• Selective PSU Play: While PSU banks have seen improved asset quality, SBI is the primary recommendation for those seeking exposure to the public sector.