SpaceX Surges Past Microsoft and Amazon in Historic Post-IPO Rally
Elon Musk’s SpaceX has staged a monumental market debut, catapulting its valuation past industry titans Amazon and Microsoft within days of going public. Driven by intense investor enthusiasm and high-stakes speculation, the company is rapidly redefining the hierarchy of the world's most valuable corporations.
A Trillion-Dollar Leap: Breaking the Tech Hierarchy
The post-IPO momentum for SpaceX (SPCX) has been nothing short of extraordinary. Following a 14.3% surge on Tuesday, shares climbed to $220, representing a massive 62% jump from its initial IPO price of $135. This rally pushed SpaceX’s market capitalization to approximately $2.85 trillion.
During the trading session, SpaceX briefly eclipsed Microsoft’s $2.92 trillion valuation and comfortably moved past Amazon’s $2.64 trillion market cap. The sheer scale of trading activity was unprecedented; more than $23.1 billion worth of SpaceX shares changed hands in a single morning, dwarfing the combined trading volumes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple.
Speculation, Volatility, and the "Greenshoe" Boost
Despite the soaring stock price, market analysts are urging caution. SpaceX reported sales of $18.67 billion last year but posted a net loss of $4.94 billion, largely due to its merger with the money-losing xAI. This financial profile stands in stark contrast to the profitable giants it is currently outperforming.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted that the current valuation appears driven more by speculation than fundamentals, suggesting investors are buying in anticipation of further price hikes. Adding to the complexity is the introduction of SpaceX options, with strikes ranging from $25 to $380. Analysts warn that a low-liquidity environment combined with high call demand could force dealers to buy more shares, potentially fueling further volatility.
Furthermore, the IPO's total proceeds increased from an initial $75 billion to $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised the "greenshoe" option to purchase additional shares.
The Roadmap to Index Inclusion and Sustained Demand
Bien que le rallye actuel soit porté par le momentum, plusieurs facteurs structurels pourraient soutenir le titre à long terme. SpaceX est sur la voie rapide pour son inclusion dans le Nasdaq 100, ce qui imposera des achats significatifs de la part des fonds passifs et des ETF.
D'autres vents favorables incluent :
- Ajouts aux indices : FTSE Russell et MSCI doivent ajouter l'action à leurs indices respectifs les 26 et 29 juin.
- Acquisitions stratégiques : SpaceX a récemment annoncé l'acquisition de la société de logiciels Anysphere pour 60 milliards de dollars, signalant son expansion agressive dans le secteur des logiciels.
- Flux passifs : La société de courtage Zephirin Group prévoit que la combinaison du momentum, d'un flottant limité et d'entrées massives de capitaux passifs pourrait faire grimper le cours encore plus haut.
Points clés
- Dominance du marché : SpaceX a atteint une valorisation stupéfiante de 2 850 milliards de dollars, dépassant brièvement Microsoft et surpassant Amazon en capitalisation boursière.
- Risque de volatilité élevé : Malgré le rallye, l'entreprise affiche actuellement une perte nette de 4,94 milliards de dollars, ce qui amène les analystes à mettre en garde contre une volatilité spéculative.
- Demande institutionnelle : L'inclusion prochaine dans les indices Nasdaq 100, FTSE Russell et MSCI devrait déclencher des achats massifs de la part des fonds d'investissement passifs.