𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗮𝘀 𝗠𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆
Rising oil prices and supply problems linked to the Iran war are clouding India's economy. India imports about 90% of its crude oil and is the third largest oil buyer globally.
The war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly one fifth of global oil and gas moves through this path.
- India's oil and gas import bill jumped 53% in April
- Global crude prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel after February 28
- Prices stay about 30% higher than before the war
- Natural gas prices rose 75%
- The RBI expects inflation to average 5.1% in FY27, up from 3.48% in April
- Economists project growth will slow to 6.6% from 7.7% last year
Economists warn long lasting tensions threaten to raise inflation, slow growth, and hurt government finances. Michael Langham is an economist at Aberdeen Investments. He said India faces a series of supply shocks. He added the Reserve Bank of India will find it hard to ignore the energy shock.
The outlook has shifted since late last year. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra then called the economy a rare Goldilocks phase with easing inflation and strong growth.
The government and the RBI have acted to support the rupee and foreign exchange reserves. Officials have also limited gold imports and urged citizens to limit foreign travel and use more public transport.
HSBC said the RBI's latest measures would limit damage. The bank had expected India's balance of payments deficit to hit $65 billion in 2026-27. It now estimates the measures would improve the balance by $30 billion. The deficit stood at $25.2 billion in 2025-26.
India has delayed passing higher import costs to consumers. Petrol and diesel prices have risen less than 10% since February 28. Other Asian oil importers raised prices by 50% or more.
The government has cut taxes on petrol and diesel. This costs about Rs 140 billion in monthly revenue. A government official said fertiliser subsidy spending will rise 20% in 2026-27.
The Centre has budgeted for a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP this year. A Reuters poll forecast the deficit will widen to 4.7%. Some economists project it will approach 5%.
Sat Duhra는 Janus Henderson Investors의 포트폴리오 매니저입니다. 그는 인도가 외국인 직접 투자, 고용, 제조업, 소비, 그리고 명목 GDP 성장 측면에서 구조적 과제에 직면해 있다고 밝혔습니다. 또한 상황을 안정시키기 위한 공공 부문 지출 삭감은 성장을 더욱 둔화시킬 위험이 있다고 말했습니다.
Crisil은 인도에 본사를 둔 신용평가사입니다. 이 기관은 소매 연료 가격이 추가로 인상될 것으로 예상하며, 운송 비용 상승이 경제 전반의 식료품 및 근원 인플레이션을 끌어올릴 것이라고 경고했습니다.