𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗮𝘀 𝗠𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆
Rising oil prices and supply problems linked to the Iran war are clouding India's economy. India imports about 90% of its crude oil and is the third largest oil buyer globally.
The war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly one fifth of global oil and gas moves through this path.
- India's oil and gas import bill jumped 53% in April
- Global crude prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel after February 28
- Prices stay about 30% higher than before the war
- Natural gas prices rose 75%
- The RBI expects inflation to average 5.1% in FY27, up from 3.48% in April
- Economists project growth will slow to 6.6% from 7.7% last year
Economists warn long lasting tensions threaten to raise inflation, slow growth, and hurt government finances. Michael Langham is an economist at Aberdeen Investments. He said India faces a series of supply shocks. He added the Reserve Bank of India will find it hard to ignore the energy shock.
The outlook has shifted since late last year. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra then called the economy a rare Goldilocks phase with easing inflation and strong growth.
The government and the RBI have acted to support the rupee and foreign exchange reserves. Officials have also limited gold imports and urged citizens to limit foreign travel and use more public transport.
HSBC said the RBI's latest measures would limit damage. The bank had expected India's balance of payments deficit to hit $65 billion in 2026-27. It now estimates the measures would improve the balance by $30 billion. The deficit stood at $25.2 billion in 2025-26.
India has delayed passing higher import costs to consumers. Petrol and diesel prices have risen less than 10% since February 28. Other Asian oil importers raised prices by 50% or more.
The government has cut taxes on petrol and diesel. This costs about Rs 140 billion in monthly revenue. A government official said fertiliser subsidy spending will rise 20% in 2026-27.
The Centre has budgeted for a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP this year. A Reuters poll forecast the deficit will widen to 4.7%. Some economists project it will approach 5%.
Sat Duhra é um gestor de portfólio na Janus Henderson Investors. Ele afirmou que a Índia enfrenta desafios estruturais em investimento estrangeiro direto, emprego, manufatura, consumo e crescimento do PIB nominal. Ele disse que cortes nos gastos do setor público para estabilizar as condições correriam o risco de desacelerar ainda mais o crescimento.
A Crisil é uma agência de classificação de risco sediada na Índia. Ela espera novos aumentos nos preços de combustíveis no varejo. A agência alertou que custos de transporte mais elevados elevariam a inflação de alimentos e a inflação subjacente em toda a economia.