Wall Street Rallies as US-Iran Deal Triggers Oil Slump and AI Surge

Global financial markets witnessed a massive bullish rally on Monday following a tentative agreement between the United States and Iran to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic breakthrough has significantly eased fears of energy supply disruptions, sending oil prices tumbling and fueling a widespread recovery across tech and travel sectors.

Oil Prices Crash Amid Geopolitical De-escalation

The most immediate impact of the US-Iran agreement was felt in the energy markets. Brent crude oil prices plummeted by 4.8% to $83.18 per barrel, marking a return to price levels last seen in early March. While prices remain above the $70 mark seen before the recent conflict, they have retreated sharply from the $100-plus peaks witnessed just weeks ago.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore the global flow of crude, potentially easing inflationary pressures on food, fuel, and fertilizer. While Iran has confirmed the agreement, formal signing is expected this Friday in Switzerland. Although broader negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program will continue for 60 days, the immediate reduction in geopolitical risk has provided a massive cushion for global markets.

Travel and AI Stocks Lead the Wall Street Charge

With energy costs expected to decline, companies heavily reliant on fuel saw significant gains. In the aviation sector, American Airlines climbed 7%, while Carnival cruise operator advanced 5.7% and United Airlines rose 5.2%.

Simultaneously, the artificial intelligence (AI) sector reclaimed its momentum after recent volatility. Semiconductor giants saw sharp rises, with Micron Technology gaining 7.8% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising 7%. Nvidia, a heavyweight in the S&P 500, advanced 2.7%. A major highlight was SpaceX, which climbed 5.4% in its second day of trading, bringing its market valuation to over $2.1 trillion—a figure surpassing the combined value of Exxon Mobil, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola.

Shifting Expectations for US Interest Rates

The drop in oil prices has also shifted the narrative in the bond market. As inflation concerns subside, Treasury yields have eased, with the 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.45% from 4.48%.

Bu değişim, yeni başkan Kevin Warsh yönetimindeki ABD Federal Rezerv'in (Fed) yaklaşan politika kararı öncesinde kritik bir önem taşıyor. Diplomatik atılım öncesinde piyasalar, faiz artırımı olasılığını yüksek fiyatlıyordu. Ancak CME Group verilerine göre yatırımcılar, bu yıl bir faiz artışı olasılığını %71'den sadece %55'e indirdi. Bu Çarşamba faizlerin sabit tutulması yaygın olarak beklenirken, azalan enflasyon görünümü Fed'e daha fazla hareket alanı sağlıyor.

Küresel Piyasa Senkronizasyonu

Ralli sadece Wall Street ile sınırlı kalmadı. Asya'da, Japonya'nın Nikkei 225 endeksi %5 yükselerek rekor seviyeye ulaştı; Güney Kore'nin Kospi endeksi ise büyük ölçüde Samsung Electronics gibi şirketlerdeki yapay zeka kaynaklı kazançların etkisiyle %5,2 oranında sıçrama yaptı. Bu küresel yükseliş, yatırımcıların Orta Doğu'daki gerilimin azalacağına dair bahis oynamasıyla birlikte, risk iştahının geniş çapta arttığını yansıtıyor.

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