Semaglutide Market Hits Speed Bump with ₹100 Crore Excess Stock
The explosive growth in India’s obesity therapy market has faced an unexpected slowdown, leaving the trade channel burdened with significant unsold inventory. Following a massive surge in April, a sudden dip in May sales has raised concerns regarding potential inventory-led losses across the pharmaceutical supply chain.
The ₹100 Crore Inventory Overhang
After a period of hyper-growth, the semaglutide therapy market is currently grappling with a substantial inventory overhang. Industry estimates suggest that stockists and wholesalers are sitting on excess stock valued at approximately ₹100 crore.
According to Rajiv Singhal, General Secretary of the All India Organisation of Chemists and Druggists (AIOCD), the current holding levels for GLP-1 (semaglutide) drugs have climbed to 50–60 days. This is significantly higher than the industry standard of 30–45 days. As a result, channel partners have hit the brakes on fresh procurement, halting new orders from pharmaceutical manufacturers until the existing surplus is liquidated.
From Hyper-Growth to Sluggish Sales
The volatility in the market is stark when comparing April to May. In April, the ₹2,000-crore obesity therapy market experienced an extraordinary surge, with value growth hitting 50% month-on-month and volumes jumping by 88%. This spike was largely driven by the flood of cheaper generic semaglutide brands entering the market following the drug's patent expiry on March 20. Major players, including Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's, and Torrent, capitalized on this window by launching generic alternatives.
However, the momentum lost steam in May. Data from market research firm Pharmarack reveals that month-on-month value growth decelerated to just 6%, while unit growth slowed to 12%.
Regulatory Shifts and Market Competitors
Industry experts suggest that the moderation in sales may not be purely a demand issue but could be linked to recent regulatory tightening. In April, government advisories and prescribing restrictions were introduced, stipulating that GLP-1 therapies should only be prescribed by qualified specialists. This shift in prescribing protocols may have contributed to the sudden cooling of the market.
Despite the semaglutide slowdown, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) remains a dominant force. As another GLP-1 receptor agonist used for type 2 diabetes and obesity, Mounjaro saw its sales rise by 12% to reach ₹136 crore in May. This performance contributed to the broader strength of India’s ₹2.5 lakh crore organized pharma retail sector, which grew by nearly 11% during the month, primarily driven by chronic therapies.
Key Takeaways
- Inventory Crisis: Stockists are holding 50–60 days of semaglutide inventory, valued at roughly ₹100 crore, leading to a freeze in new orders.
- Growth Deceleration: After a massive 50% value surge in April following patent expiry, May sales growth plummeted to just 6%.
- Regulatory Impact: Stricter guidelines requiring specialists to prescribe GLP-1 therapies are believed to be a key factor in the recent sales moderation.