Article: ASML said its 2026 revenue outlook now sits between €43 billion and €45 billion, and it will lift EUV production capacity by 30 % each year over the next two years as AI-driven chip orders surge. The upgrade follows a second-quarter earnings beat that sent the stock up 5.7 % in early trading.

Why the upgrade matters now

The Dutch equipment maker posted €9.33 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 30, outpacing the €8.80 billion analysts expected. Net income rose to €2.92 billion, above the €2.62 billion consensus. Those numbers show ASML breaking the bottleneck for the world’s most advanced chips – the same tools used by TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron to keep Moore’s Law moving.

From a modest outlook to a 16 % midpoint growth rate

Earlier guidance pegged 2026 sales at €36 billion-€40 billion. The new range pushes the midpoint growth to roughly 16 % a year, a shift the company attributes to “exploding” demand for AI hardware.

Scaling the EUV engine

ASML plans to raise EUV system capacity by 30 % each year for the next two years. At the same time, it will expand Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) production to serve the still-large market for less-advanced chips that power everything from smartphones to automotive electronics.

Intel’s High-NA bet

The most visible sign of demand comes from Intel, which confirmed it will install ASML’s next-generation High-Numerical Aperture (High-NA) EUV tools for its upcoming Panther Lake processors. Intel’s commitment signals confidence that the High-NA platform will become the new standard for cutting-edge silicon.

China remains a double-edged market

U.S. export controls keep ASML’s top-tier EUV and high-end DUV machines out of China, but the company still expects Chinese customers to make up about 20 % of total sales this year, driven by demand for lower-spec DUV equipment. CFO Roger Dassen said volume from China should climb as overall revenue rises. The restriction creates a paradox: while the most lucrative tools stay away, a sizable slice of the market continues to buy older generations, giving ASML a foothold but also limiting upside from the country’s massive fab build-out plans.