US Markets Slump: Nasdaq and S&P 500 Drop as Fed Signals Potential Rate Hikes

Wall Street faced a sharp sell-off on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve's latest policy stance shifted toward a more hawkish tone. While interest rates were held steady, new projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have led investors to price in potential rate hikes later this year.

Fed Holds Rates Steady but Signals Hawkish Shift

The Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, a move that was widely anticipated by the markets. However, the underlying tone of the meeting was significantly more aggressive than expected. In a departure from previous policy language, the Fed’s official statement removed references that had signaled the possibility of rate cuts within this year.

New quarterly projections revealed that nine central bank officials now expect at least one interest rate hike before the end of 2026. This shift comes as policymakers grapple with persistent inflation pressures, exacerbated by a spike in oil prices stemming from the Iran war. Breaking with traditional protocol, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh refrained from submitting a formal interest-rate-path projection, instead emphasizing the central bank's unwavering commitment to achieving price stability.

Market Reaction: Nasdaq and S&P 500 Hit Hard

The shift in sentiment triggered an immediate retreat across major indices. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 fell by 89.59 points, or 1.19%, to close at 7,421.76. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw a steeper decline, losing 349.14 points (1.32%) to end at 26,027.21. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average was not spared, dropping 499.18 points, or 0.96%, to settle at 51,494.99.

Traders have rapidly adjusted their expectations following the Fed's announcement. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of rates holding steady through the end of the year plummeted from 40% on Tuesday to just 15.7%. Currently, the market is pricing in a nearly 38% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, while the likelihood of a more aggressive 50-basis-point hike stands at approximately 33%.

Volatility Driven by Geopolitics and Economic Data

Чутливість ринку ще більше посилилася через геополітичну невизначеність та суперечливі економічні сигнали. Хоча роздрібні продажі в США у травні продемонстрували несподіване зростання — завдяки збільшенню покупок автомобілів, попри високу вартість бензину — ціни на нафту різко коливалися. Після короткого ралі на тлі новин про потенційну мирну угоду між США та Іраном, ціни на нафту знову трохи зросли після того, як президент Трамп уточнив, що угода не є остаточною.

У корпоративних новинах акції CME Group знизилися після оголошення про те, що генеральний директор Террі Даффі перейде на посаду виконавчого голови 1 березня. Навпаки, акції Allbirds стрімко зросли після того, як компанія провела ребрендинг у "Smartbird", змінила стратегію на користь ШІ та призначила колишню керівницю Amazon Надію Карлстен новим генеральним директором.

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