Semaglutide Market Faces Slump: Excess Stock Worth ₹100 Crore Hits Channels

The rapid surge in India’s weight-loss and semaglutide therapy market has encountered a significant slowdown, leaving the supply chain struggling with massive inventory overhangs. After a period of hyper-growth, a sudden deceleration in sales has left stockists and wholesalers holding excess stock estimated at approximately ₹100 crore.

From Hyper-Growth to Inventory Overhang

The semaglutide market, which sits within the broader ₹2,000-crore obesity therapy segment, experienced an unprecedented boom in April. This surge was triggered by the patent expiry of semaglutide on March 20, which allowed major pharmaceutical players like Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, and Torrent to flood the market with cheaper generic versions. In April, the market saw a massive 50% month-on-month value growth and an 88% jump in volume.

However, the momentum failed to sustain into May. According to data from market research firm Pharmarack, month-on-month value growth slowed significantly to just 6%, while unit growth moderated to 12%. This sudden drop has left the trade channel in a precarious position.

Stockists Halt Procurement Amid ₹100 Crore Surplus

The disparity between the rapid influx of generic brands and actual consumer demand has created a massive inventory imbalance. Rajiv Singhal, General Secretary of the All India Organisation of Chemists and Druggists (AIOCD), noted that stockists and wholesalers are currently holding 50–60 days of GLP-1 (semaglutide) inventory. This is considerably higher than the industry standard of 30–45 days.

As a result of this surplus, channel partners have effectively paused fresh procurement from pharmaceutical manufacturers. The industry is now in a "wait-and-watch" mode, with businesses focusing on liquidating existing stocks before placing new orders. The total value of this stagnant inventory in the trade channel is estimated to be near ₹100 crore.

Regulatory Shifts and Competitive Landscape

Industry experts suggest that the cooling of the market may not be purely a supply-demand mismatch but could be influenced by regulatory tightening. New government advisories and prescribing restrictions announced in April stipulate that GLP-1 therapies should only be prescribed by qualified specialists. This shift in prescribing protocols likely contributed to the moderation in sales volumes seen in May.

Despite the semaglutide slowdown, other players in the GLP-1 receptor agonist class continue to perform well. Mounjaro (tirzepatide), marketed by Eli Lilly, remained the top-selling therapy in the pharma market during May, with sales growing by 12% to reach ₹136 crore. While the obesity segment faces a temporary hiccup, the broader ₹2.5 lakh crore organized pharma retail market grew by nearly 11% in May, driven primarily by chronic therapies.

Key Takeaways

  • Inventory Crisis: Stockists are holding 50–60 days of semaglutide inventory, leading to an estimated ₹100 crore excess stock in the trade channel.
  • Growth Deceleration: After a 50% value surge in April, the market saw month-on-month growth plummet to just 6% in May.
  • Regulatory Impact: New guidelines requiring specialists to prescribe GLP-1 therapies are believed to be a contributing factor to the sudden slowdown in sales.