Brent Crude Hits Pre-Iran War Lows Following Landmark Ceasefire Deal

Global oil markets witnessed a significant downturn on Thursday as an interim ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran sent prices tumbling to their lowest levels since before the conflict began. The agreement, which aims to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, has effectively removed the massive "risk premium" that had been driving up energy costs worldwide.

The Geopolitical Shift: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

The primary catalyst for the price drop is a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This maritime corridor is vital to the global economy, as disruptions there previously threatened 20% of all global oil flows.

According to the terms of the accord, traffic through the strait is expected to be restored to full capacity within 30 days. While complex issues such as Iran's nuclear program remain deferred, the deal includes a massive $300-billion plan, backed by the United States and its partners, to finance Iran's economic recovery. This sudden easing of geopolitical tension has stripped away the supply-chain fears that had kept Brent crude elevated.

Market Reaction: Brent and WTI Dive

The impact on commodities markets was immediate and sharp. Brent crude futures plummeted by $1.85, or 2.33%, trading at $77.69 per barrel. This marks its lowest level since February 27, the final trading day before the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by $1.89, or 2.46%, to $74.90 per barrel, reaching its lowest point since March 4.

Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted that the potential reopening of the strait removes the heavy risk premium previously baked into prices. While some analysts remain cautious about the timeline for full normalization—citing the need for insurance updates and infrastructure repairs—the market sentiment has shifted decisively toward a surplus outlook.

Expert Projections: Will Prices Plummet Further?

Meskipun terjadi volatilitas saat ini, lembaga keuangan utama memperkirakan bahwa keruntuhan harga secara total mungkin tidak akan terjadi. Goldman Sachs memprediksi bahwa ekspor Teluk akan kembali normal ke tingkat sebelum perang pada akhir Juli, dengan pemulihan produksi minyak mentah secara penuh yang diharapkan terjadi pada bulan Oktober. Bank tersebut memperkirakan bahwa untuk mencapai tingkat ekspor sebelum perang, diperlukan peningkatan aliran di Hormuz sebesar 13 juta barel per hari.

BNP Paribas mengambil sikap yang lebih konservatif, menganggap $75 per barel sebagai "lantai harga yang tahan lama" untuk masa mendatang, dengan alasan kerugian pasokan yang terus berlanjut dan permintaan yang kuat. Selain itu, tren permintaan jangka panjang dapat bertindak sebagai batas atas harga; unit riset PetroChina memperkirakan bahwa konsumsi minyak Tiongkok dapat turun sebesar 4,9% pada tahun 2026 seiring dengan peralihan negara tersebut ke sumber energi baru.

Poin-Poin Penting

  • Relief Geopolitik: Kesepakatan gencatan senjata AS-Iran dan komitmen untuk membuka kembali Selat Hormuz telah menghapus premi risiko pasokan global sebesar 20%.
  • Koreksi Harga: Minyak mentah Brent telah mencapai level terendahnya sejak akhir Februari, mencerminkan optimisme pasar yang tiba-tiba terkait pemulihan aliran minyak.
  • Level Dukungan: Meskipun harga telah turun, analis dari BNP Paribas menyarankan bahwa $75 per barel dapat bertindak sebagai lantai harga karena permintaan yang berkelanjutan dan kesenjangan pasokan yang ada.