Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows Following Iran Ceasefire Deal

Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices plunged to their lowest levels since before the onset of the Iran war. The sudden price drop follows an interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz and easing international sanctions on Tehran.

The Geopolitical Shift: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

The primary driver behind the recent price volatility is the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the United States and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows.

The deal specifically mandates that traffic through the strait be restored to full capacity within 30 days. As Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted, the potential reopening removes the massive "risk premium" that had been priced into crude due to supply disruptions. While full normalization—including insurance adjustments and sanctions relief—may take time, the market has reacted aggressively to the improved supply outlook.

Market Performance and Price Benchmarks

The impact on energy benchmarks was immediate and sharp. Brent crude futures fell by $1.85, or 2.33%, to settle at $77.69 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by $1.89, or 2.46%, to $74.90 per barrel.

Brent has now touched its lowest price point since February 27, the final trading day before the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. For context, Brent was trading in the $60 to $70 range during the first two months of the year, prior to the escalation of hostilities.

Expert Projections: Recovery Timelines and Price Floors

While the immediate trend is bearish, financial institutions are offering nuanced timelines for a full market recovery. Goldman Sachs anticipates that Gulf exports could normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, with total crude production expected to fully recover by October. The bank estimates that achieving pre-war export levels would require a massive increase of 13 million barrels per day in Hormuz flows.

Namun, tidak semua analis memperkirakan penurunan harga yang drastis. BNP Paribas telah mengidentifikasi $75 per barel sebagai "lantai harga yang kokoh" untuk masa mendatang, dengan alasan kerugian pasokan yang terus berlanjut dan permintaan yang stabil. Selain itu, prospek permintaan jangka panjang tetap kompleks; unit riset PetroChina memperkirakan bahwa konsumsi minyak China mungkin turun sebesar 4,9% pada tahun 2026 dibandingkan dengan tahun 2025, seiring dengan peralihan negara tersebut ke sumber energi baru.

Poin-Poin Penting

  • De-eskalasi Geopolitik: Kesepakatan sementara AS-Iran bertujuan untuk memulihkan kapasitas penuh di Selat Hormuz dalam waktu 30 hari, yang secara signifikan mengurangi premi risiko pasokan global.
  • Koreksi Harga: Minyak mentah Brent telah turun ke sekitar $77,69 per barel, menandai level terendahnya sejak periode pra-perang pada akhir Februari.
  • Garis Waktu Normalisasi: Goldman Sachs memperkirakan ekspor Teluk akan stabil pada akhir Juli, meskipun BNP Paribas menyarankan bahwa $75 per barel akan bertindak sebagai lantai harga karena kendala pasokan yang ada.