Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows Following Iran Ceasefire Deal
Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices plunged to their lowest levels since before the onset of the Iran war. The sudden price drop follows an interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz and easing international sanctions on Tehran.
The Geopolitical Shift: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
The primary driver behind the recent price volatility is the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the United States and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows.
The deal specifically mandates that traffic through the strait be restored to full capacity within 30 days. As Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted, the potential reopening removes the massive "risk premium" that had been priced into crude due to supply disruptions. While full normalization—including insurance adjustments and sanctions relief—may take time, the market has reacted aggressively to the improved supply outlook.
Market Performance and Price Benchmarks
The impact on energy benchmarks was immediate and sharp. Brent crude futures fell by $1.85, or 2.33%, to settle at $77.69 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by $1.89, or 2.46%, to $74.90 per barrel.
Brent has now touched its lowest price point since February 27, the final trading day before the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. For context, Brent was trading in the $60 to $70 range during the first two months of the year, prior to the escalation of hostilities.
Expert Projections: Recovery Timelines and Price Floors
While the immediate trend is bearish, financial institutions are offering nuanced timelines for a full market recovery. Goldman Sachs anticipates that Gulf exports could normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, with total crude production expected to fully recover by October. The bank estimates that achieving pre-war export levels would require a massive increase of 13 million barrels per day in Hormuz flows.
ومع ذلك، لا يتوقع جميع المحللين انهياراً حاداً في الأسعار. فقد حدد BNP Paribas مبلغ 75 دولاراً للبرميل بمثابة "قاع مستدام" في المستقبل المنظور، مستشهداً بخسائر الإمدادات المستمرة والطلب المستدام. علاوة على ذلك، لا تزال توقعات الطلب على المدى الطويل معقدة؛ حيث تتوقع وحدة الأبحاث في PetroChina أن استهلاك الصين للنفط قد ينخفض بنسبة 4.9% في عام 2026 مقارنة بعام 2025، مع توجه البلاد نحو مصادر الطاقة الجديدة.
أهم النقاط المستخلصة
- تخفيف حدة التوترات الجيوسياسية: تهدف الاتفاقية المؤقتة بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران إلى استعادة القدرة الكاملة لمضيق هرمز في غضون 30 يوماً، مما يقلل بشكل كبير من علاوة مخاطر الإمدادات العالمية.
- تصحيح الأسعار: انخفض خام Brent إلى حوالي 77.69 دولاراً للبرميل، مسجلاً أدنى مستوى له منذ فترة ما قبل الحرب في أواخر فبراير.
- الجدول الزمني للعودة إلى الوضع الطبيعي: تتوقع Goldman Sachs استقرار الصادرات الخليجية بحلول أواخر يوليو، رغم أن BNP Paribas تشير إلى أن سعر 75 دولاراً للبرميل سيعمل كقاع للسعر بسبب قيود الإمدادات الحالية.