Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows Following Iran Ceasefire Deal

Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices plunged to their lowest levels since before the onset of the Iran war. The sudden price drop follows an interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz and easing international sanctions on Tehran.

The Geopolitical Shift: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

The primary driver behind the recent price volatility is the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the United States and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows.

The deal specifically mandates that traffic through the strait be restored to full capacity within 30 days. As Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted, the potential reopening removes the massive "risk premium" that had been priced into crude due to supply disruptions. While full normalization—including insurance adjustments and sanctions relief—may take time, the market has reacted aggressively to the improved supply outlook.

Market Performance and Price Benchmarks

The impact on energy benchmarks was immediate and sharp. Brent crude futures fell by $1.85, or 2.33%, to settle at $77.69 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by $1.89, or 2.46%, to $74.90 per barrel.

Brent has now touched its lowest price point since February 27, the final trading day before the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. For context, Brent was trading in the $60 to $70 range during the first two months of the year, prior to the escalation of hostilities.

Expert Projections: Recovery Timelines and Price Floors

While the immediate trend is bearish, financial institutions are offering nuanced timelines for a full market recovery. Goldman Sachs anticipates that Gulf exports could normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, with total crude production expected to fully recover by October. The bank estimates that achieving pre-war export levels would require a massive increase of 13 million barrels per day in Hormuz flows.

Cependant, tous les analystes ne prévoient pas une chute libre des prix. BNP Paribas a identifié 75 $ le baril comme un « plancher durable » pour l'avenir prévisible, citant les pertes d'approvisionnement en cours et une demande soutenue. De plus, les perspectives de la demande à long terme restent complexes ; l'unité de recherche de PetroChina prévoit que la consommation de pétrole de la Chine pourrait chuter de 4,9 % en 2026 par rapport à 2025, alors que le pays se tourne vers de nouvelles sources d'énergie.

Points clés

  • Désescalade géopolitique : L'accord intérimaire entre les États-Unis et l'Iran vise à rétablir la pleine capacité du détroit d'Ormuz d'ici 30 jours, réduisant ainsi considérablement la prime de risque sur l'approvisionnement mondial.
  • Correction des prix : Le Brent est tombé à environ 77,69 $ le baril, marquant son niveau le plus bas depuis la période précédant la guerre à la fin du mois de février.
  • Calendrier de normalisation : Goldman Sachs prévoit une stabilisation des exportations du Golfe d'ici la fin juillet, bien que BNP Paribas suggère que 75 $ le baril servira de plancher de prix en raison des contraintes d'approvisionnement existantes.