Brent Crude Hits Pre-Iran War Lows Following Landmark Ceasefire Deal

Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices plunged to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of conflict with Iran. The sudden price drop follows an interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz and easing sanctions on Tehran, significantly boosting the global supply outlook.

The Ceasefire Deal: Unlocking the Strait of Hormuz

The primary driver behind the market volatility is a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint that accounts for roughly 20% of global oil flows.

Under the terms of the accord, traffic through the strait is expected to be restored to full capacity within 30 days. While complex issues like Iran's nuclear program remain deferred, the deal includes a massive $300-billion financing plan proposed by the U.S. and its partners to aid Iran's economic recovery. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted that the removal of the "risk premium" associated with disrupted flows has cleared the path for lower prices.

Market Reaction: Brent and WTI Slump

The impact on commodities was immediate and sharp. Brent crude futures tumbled by $1.85 (2.33%) to settle at $77.69 per barrel, marking its lowest point since February 27, the last trading day before initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) saw a decline of $1.89 (2.46%), trading at $74.90 per barrel, its lowest level since March 4.

While the direction of the market is clearly downward, analysts suggest the decline may not be infinite. BNP Paribas has identified $75 per barrel as a "durable floor" for the foreseeable future, citing ongoing supply losses and sustained demand.

Forecasts for Supply Normalization and Demand

Bank-bank investasi kini sedang memetakan lini masa untuk kembali ke kondisi normal. Goldman Sachs memproyeksikan bahwa ekspor Teluk dapat kembali ke level sebelum perang pada akhir Juli, dengan pemulihan produksi minyak mentah secara penuh diperkirakan terjadi pada bulan Oktober. Secara khusus, bank tersebut memperkirakan bahwa peningkatan aliran Hormuz sebesar 13 juta barel per hari akan membawa volume ke sekitar 70% dari level sebelum perang.

Namun, permintaan jangka panjang tetap menjadi faktor yang tidak terduga. Sebuah laporan dari unit riset PetroChina menunjukkan potensi pergeseran dalam pola konsumsi; China, konsumen minyak terbesar kedua di dunia, diperkirakan akan mengonsumsi 753 juta metrik ton pada tahun 2026, yang mewakili penurunan sebesar 4,9% dari level tahun 2025 karena peralihan ke sumber energi baru.

Poin-Poin Penting

  • Lonjakan Pasokan Diperkirakan Akan Terjadi: Pembukaan kembali Selat Hormuz akan memulihkan aliran minyak yang vital, menghilangkan premi risiko geopolitik yang sebelumnya menggelembungkan harga.
  • Batas Bawah Harga Mulai Terlihat: Meskipun harga telah mencapai titik terendah sebelum perang, analis dari BNP Paribas menyarankan bahwa $75 per barel dapat bertindak sebagai level dukungan karena adanya kendala pasokan.
  • Lini Masa Pemulihan: Goldman Sachs mengantisipasi ekspor Teluk akan kembali normal pada akhir Juli, meskipun pergeseran China ke arah energi baru dapat meredam permintaan minyak global jangka panjang.