SpaceX Surges Past Microsoft and Amazon in Historic Post-IPO Rally

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has delivered a blockbuster debut on the public markets, with its valuation briefly eclipsing tech giants Microsoft and Amazon. Following a massive surge in share price, the rockets-to-AI powerhouse has firmly established itself among the world’s top five most valuable companies.

A Meteoric Rise in Market Capitalization

In a stunning display of post-IPO momentum, SpaceX (SPCX) shares climbed 14.3% on Tuesday, reaching $220 per share. This represents a massive 62% jump from its initial public offering price of $135. If these gains hold, SpaceX’s market capitalization is projected to hit approximately $2.85 trillion.

The impact on the broader market was immediate, as SpaceX provided the single largest boost to the Nasdaq Composite index. During the trading session, SpaceX's valuation briefly surpassed Microsoft’s $2.92 trillion market cap and comfortably moved ahead of Amazon’s $2.64 trillion valuation. The sheer volume of trading was unprecedented; more than $23.1 billion worth of SpaceX shares changed hands, dwarfing the combined trading volumes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple.

Speculation vs. Fundamentals: The Valuation Debate

Despite the euphoria, market analysts are urging caution regarding the company's astronomical valuation. Unlike many Wall Street tech titans that report massive profits, SpaceX reported sales of $18.67 billion last year but recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion, largely due to its merger with the money-losing xAI.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted that the current valuation "makes absolutely no sense today," suggesting the rally is driven by speculative momentum where investors buy in anticipation of further price hikes. Furthermore, the launch of SpaceX options—with strikes ranging from $25 to $380—and a relatively small float could trigger significant volatility as dealers manage heavy demand.

Institutional Inflows and Future Growth Drivers

While the current price is debated, several structural factors could sustain the upward trajectory. SpaceX is slated for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, which will force passive funds and ETFs to buy the stock to track the index. Additionally, FTSE Russell and MSCI are expected to add SpaceX to their indexes on June 26 and June 29, respectively.

La società di intermediazione Zephirin Group ha evidenziato come la combinazione di "flussi passivi, momentum e un float limitato" possa spingere i prezzi al rialzo oltre i tipici movimenti legati all'inserimento negli indici. Per alimentare le proprie ambizioni di crescita, lunedì SpaceX ha anche annunciato l'acquisizione della società di software Anysphere per 60 miliardi di dollari. L'azienda ha inoltre rafforzato la sua posizione di capitale iniziale dopo che i sottoscrittori hanno esercitato l'opzione "greenshoe", aumentando i proventi totali dell'IPO da 75 miliardi di dollari a 85,7 miliardi di dollari.

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