SpaceX Market Value Surges Past Amazon and Microsoft in Historic IPO Rally

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has achieved a monumental feat in the public markets, with its valuation skyrocketing past tech giants Amazon and Microsoft shortly after its blockbuster IPO. Driven by intense post-listing momentum, the rockets-to-AI powerhouse has instantly become one of the most influential forces in the global equity landscape.

A Meteoric Rise in Market Capitalization

Following a massive 14.3% surge on Tuesday, SpaceX (SPCX) shares climbed to $220, marking a staggering 62% increase from its initial IPO price of $135. This rally pushed the company's market capitalization to approximately $2.85 trillion. During the trading session, SpaceX briefly overtook Microsoft’s $2.92 trillion valuation and decisively surpassed Amazon’s $2.64 trillion valuation, positioning itself among the top five most valuable companies in the world.

The trading volume has been unprecedented; over $23.1 billion worth of SpaceX shares changed hands by mid-morning, a figure that significantly eclipses the combined trading volumes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple.

Speculation vs. Fundamentals: The Valuation Debate

Despite the euphoria, market analysts are divided on the sustainability of this valuation. SpaceX reported sales of $18.67 billion last year but recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion, largely due to its merger with the money-losing AI firm xAI. This stands in stark contrast to the massive profitability seen in other Big Tech peers.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, cautioned that the current valuation "makes absolutely no sense" from a fundamental standpoint, suggesting much of the movement is driven by speculative momentum. However, the company's strategic moves, including the $60 billion acquisition of software firm Anysphere, indicate a massive push to dominate the AI and software ecosystem alongside its aerospace dominance.

Index Inclusion and Upcoming Demand Drivers

The next phase of SpaceX's market journey will be shaped by institutional inflows. The stock is slated for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, which will force passive funds and ETFs to purchase large quantities of shares. Furthermore, FTSE Russell and MSCI are scheduled to add the stock to their respective indexes on June 26 and June 29.

La società di intermediazione Zephirin Group ha osservato che la combinazione di momentum, inclusione negli indici e un "float" limitato (il numero di azioni disponibili per il trading pubblico) potrebbe spingere il prezzo ancora più in alto. Questa scarsità è esacerbata dal fatto che i sottoscrittori hanno recentemente esercitato un'opzione "greenshoe", aumentando i proventi totali dell'IPO da 75 miliardi di dollari a 85,7 miliardi di dollari.

Volatilità accentuata e trading di opzioni

Con il lancio delle opzioni SPCX — con prezzi di esercizio compresi tra 25 $ e 380 $ — gli investitori dispongono ora di nuovi strumenti per scommettere sulla traiettoria dell'azienda. Gli analisti avvertono di una volatilità significativa nelle prossime settimane a causa della bassa liquidità e dell'elevata valutazione. Mentre i dealer gestiscono l'intensa domanda di call, il mercato potrebbe subire improvvise oscillazioni di prezzo, rendendolo un ambiente ad alto rischio sia per gli investitori retail che per quelli istituzionali.

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