SpaceX Market Value Surges Past Amazon and Microsoft in Historic IPO Rally

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has achieved a monumental feat in the public markets, with its valuation skyrocketing past tech giants Amazon and Microsoft shortly after its blockbuster IPO. Driven by intense post-listing momentum, the rockets-to-AI powerhouse has instantly become one of the most influential forces in the global equity landscape.

A Meteoric Rise in Market Capitalization

Following a massive 14.3% surge on Tuesday, SpaceX (SPCX) shares climbed to $220, marking a staggering 62% increase from its initial IPO price of $135. This rally pushed the company's market capitalization to approximately $2.85 trillion. During the trading session, SpaceX briefly overtook Microsoft’s $2.92 trillion valuation and decisively surpassed Amazon’s $2.64 trillion valuation, positioning itself among the top five most valuable companies in the world.

The trading volume has been unprecedented; over $23.1 billion worth of SpaceX shares changed hands by mid-morning, a figure that significantly eclipses the combined trading volumes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple.

Speculation vs. Fundamentals: The Valuation Debate

Despite the euphoria, market analysts are divided on the sustainability of this valuation. SpaceX reported sales of $18.67 billion last year but recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion, largely due to its merger with the money-losing AI firm xAI. This stands in stark contrast to the massive profitability seen in other Big Tech peers.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, cautioned that the current valuation "makes absolutely no sense" from a fundamental standpoint, suggesting much of the movement is driven by speculative momentum. However, the company's strategic moves, including the $60 billion acquisition of software firm Anysphere, indicate a massive push to dominate the AI and software ecosystem alongside its aerospace dominance.

Index Inclusion and Upcoming Demand Drivers

The next phase of SpaceX's market journey will be shaped by institutional inflows. The stock is slated for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, which will force passive funds and ETFs to purchase large quantities of shares. Furthermore, FTSE Russell and MSCI are scheduled to add the stock to their respective indexes on June 26 and June 29.

La correduría Zephirin Group señaló que la combinación de impulso, la inclusión en índices y un "flotante" limitado (el número de acciones disponibles para el comercio público) podría impulsar el precio aún más. Esta escasez se ve exacerbada por el hecho de que los suscriptores ejercieron recientemente una opción "greenshoe", aumentando los fondos totales de la OPI de 75.000 millones de dólares a 85.700 millones de dólares.

Mayor volatilidad y negociación de opciones

Con el lanzamiento de las opciones SPCX —con precios de ejercicio que oscilan entre los 25 y los 380 dólares— los inversores ahora cuentan con nuevas herramientas para apostar por la trayectoria de la empresa. Los analistas advierten de una volatilidad significativa en las próximas semanas debido a la baja liquidez y la alta valoración. A medida que los intermediarios gestionan una fuerte demanda de opciones de compra (calls), el mercado puede experimentar oscilaciones repentinas de precios, lo que convierte al entorno en uno de alto riesgo tanto para los inversores minoristas como para los institucionales.

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