US Fed Holds Rates Steady but Signals Year-End Hike Under Kevin Warsh

The US Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate at the 3.5% to 3.75% range, marking the first policy decision under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. While the pause aligns with market expectations, a hawkish shift in projections suggests that borrowing costs are likely to rise before the end of the year.

Warsh’s First Policy Review: A Unified Stance

In his debut policy review after succeeding Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh presided over a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision that received unanimous support from policymakers—the first time such consensus has been reached in a year. The Committee decided to keep the federal funds rate within the 3.5% to 3.75% target range to support the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

Despite the pause, the Fed has removed its forward guidance regarding the future path of interest rates, a move that grants the central bank more flexibility to react to shifting economic data. The FOMC noted that while economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, elevated uncertainty—driven in part by conflicts in the Middle East—remains a significant factor.

Rising Inflation Forecasts and Year-End Hike Projections

The most significant takeaway from the meeting was the hawkish tone regarding inflation. The Fed revised its inflation outlook upward, signaling that price pressures are expected to persist longer than previously anticipated. Current projections suggest inflation may not return to the 2% target before 2028.

The Summary of Economic Projections highlighted a notable shift:

• PCE Price Index: The forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index was raised to 3.6% by the end of 2026, a sharp increase from the 2.7% estimate issued in March.
• Rate Hike Sentiment: Out of the 19 officials participating in the projection exercise, 18 signaled that at least one rate increase is likely before the end of the year.

Recent data showing inflation climbing to a three-year high of 4.2%, largely driven by fuel costs, has made the Fed's task increasingly difficult. With inflation remaining elevated, the central bank is constrained from cutting rates, as doing so could further stimulate demand and exacerbate price hikes.

連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）におけるリーダーシップの新時代

ジェローム・パウエルからケビン・ウォーシュへの交代は、単なる人事の変更にとどまりません。それは、コミュニケーションスタイルの潜在的な変化を予兆するものです。パウエルが率直で親しみやすいことで知られていたのに対し、ウォーシュは、かつてのアラン・グリーンスパン議長を彷彿とさせる、より慎重で「謎めいた」アプローチを採用すると予想されています。

業界関係者は、ウォーシュが広範な内部審議を重視し、公の場での演説を減らすことで、短期的な経済変動に対するリアルタイムの解説を抑制すると見ています。この変化は、中東の地政学的な複雑さや、トランプ政権の多様な経済姿勢に市場が対応を迫られているという、極めて繊細な時期に訪れます。

主な要点

• 金利据え置き: FOMCはフェデラル・ファンド金利を3.5%～3.75%に維持しましたが、満場一致の決定は、内部の強い結束を示しました。
• タカ派的な見通し: 19名中18名の政策決定者が、根強いインフレに対抗するため、年内に少なくとも1回の利上げが行われると予測しています。
• 長期的なインフレへの懸念: FRBは2026年のPCEインフレ予測を3.6%に引き上げ、2%の目標達成は2028年まで見込めないと予測しています。