Will Sensex and Nifty Bounce Back? 5 Key Factors Driving Markets

After a five-session winning streak, the Indian equity market faced a sharp reversal on Friday, with the Sensex plunging 607 points to settle at 76,802.90. As investors eye a potential recovery this week, several geopolitical and domestic factors are set to dictate whether the Sensex and Nifty50 can reclaim their recent highs.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Oil Factor

The fragile peace process between the United States and Iran is casting a shadow over global markets. Despite a 60-day ceasefire agreement brokered by Pakistan, tensions spiked following claims by Iran's IRGC regarding the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. While the U.S. military maintains that commercial shipping remains uninterrupted, the cancellation of scheduled talks in Switzerland has fueled uncertainty.

This geopolitical instability is directly impacting energy markets. Brent crude futures rose by 0.9% to close at $80.57 a barrel, while WTI futures gained 1.23% to $77.54. Any escalation in Middle Eastern tensions could lead to a spike in oil prices, posing a risk to India's fiscal deficit and inflationary pressures.

The IT Sector Selloff

The Indian IT sector remains a significant drag on market sentiment. On Friday, heavyweights like Infosys, TCS, Tech Mahindra, and HCL Tech tumbled by as much as 7%. This domestic weakness follows a bruising session on Wall Street, where Accenture's shares slid 11% after the firm lowered its FY26 revenue growth guidance to a range of 3-4% from the previous 3-5%.

Technical indicators for the IT index show bearish momentum, with the RSI slipping below 40 and the DI- crossing above DI+. Investors should watch the 27,050–27,000 support zone closely; a breach below this could trigger further downside.

Rupee Resilience and Institutional Flows

Despite global dollar strength, the Indian rupee has shown remarkable resilience, recording its strongest weekly performance in 11 weeks. Closing at 94.32 per dollar, the currency has been bolstered by recent RBI measures designed to attract dollar inflows. Some analysts even forecast a potential strengthening toward the 93.50 mark.

Sumándose al sentimiento positivo se encuentra el regreso de los Inversores Institucionales Extranjeros (FIIs). Los FIIs se convirtieron en compradores netos la semana pasada, aportando aproximadamente Rs 3.400 crore. Esto fue complementado por los Inversores Institucionales Domésticos (DIIs), quienes compraron acciones por un valor de aproximadamente Rs 7.100 crore, proporcionando un colchón crucial contra la volatilidad.

Perspectiva técnica para el Nifty

Si bien la reciente liquidación fue pronunciada, la tendencia general del Nifty sigue siendo cautelosamente positiva, ya que cotiza por encima de sus medias móviles exponenciales (EMA) de 20 y 50 días.

Para el Nifty, la zona de soporte inmediato se sitúa entre 23.850 y 23.800. Una ruptura decisiva por debajo de 23.800 podría hacer que el índice caiga hacia los 23.500. En el lado alcista, se debe superar la zona de resistencia de 24.150–24.200 para desencadenar un nuevo repunte hacia la marca de 24.500.

Conclusiones clave

  • Riesgo geopolítico: La incertidumbre en torno al acuerdo de paz entre EE. UU. e Irán y el estado del Estrecho de Ormuz está impulsando la volatilidad en los precios del petróleo crudo.
  • Presión en el sector de TI: Las débiles previsiones de pares globales como Accenture están pesando fuertemente sobre las acciones tecnológicas indias, lo que requiere un rebote técnico para recuperar el impulso.
  • Soporte institucional: La fuerza de compra combinada de los FIIs (Rs 3.400 crore) y los DIIs (Rs 7.100 crore) sigue siendo un pilar fundamental de apoyo para el mercado nacional.