India Considers Massive Crude Oil Stockpile Increase to Boost Energy Security
As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten global supply chains, India is contemplating a major shift in its energy security strategy. Drawing direct inspiration from China’s robust reserves, policymakers are exploring a mandate that would require domestic refiners to maintain significantly larger crude oil inventories to buffer against sudden supply shocks.
Learning from the China Model
For years, Indian policymakers operated under the assumption that the country's geographic proximity to the Persian Gulf mitigated the need for massive Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). However, recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Iran conflict have challenged this belief.
The disparity in reserves between India and other major economies is stark. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, India held approximately 21 million barrels of strategic crude reserves at the end of 2025. In contrast, China maintains a massive 1,397 million barrels, the US holds 413 million barrels, and Japan maintains 263 million barrels. To bridge this vulnerability, India is looking at a policy shift that moves beyond the current 15-day routine operational stock.
The Scale of the Proposed Mandate
The proposed policy aims to push refiners to hold inventories that could cover up to 30 days of national consumption. Given India's daily demand of approximately 5 million barrels, this would require domestic refiners to collectively maintain around 150 million barrels of crude oil.
Transitioning to this model involves immense financial and logistical hurdles. If refiners are required to double their current inventory holdings, the estimated cost for additional crude purchases could reach nearly ₹60,000 crore, considering prevailing market prices and exchange rates.
Infrastructure Challenges and Industry Pushback
The move is expected to face significant resistance from industry players due to the dual burden of capital expenditure. Beyond the cost of the oil itself, companies would need to invest several thousand crore rupees to expand storage infrastructure. Building new tank facilities is a capital-intensive, long-term project that could take several years to complete.
業界の専門家は、政府がこの方針を推進する場合、政策に柔軟性を持たせる必要があると指摘しています。主な推奨事項は以下の通りです：
- 商業的柔軟性： 製油所が備蓄原油を商業目的で使用できるようにすること。
- 戦略的立地： 主要港の近くでの貯蔵能力の開発を促進すること。
- 取引ハブとしての潜在能力： シンガポールの広範な港湾貯蔵モデルを模倣し、インドを世界有数の石油取引センターへと変貌させること。
要点
- 大規模な拡充の必要性： 国内の30日分の消費量をカバーするためには、インドは総在庫を現在の水準から大幅に引き上げ、1億5,000万バレルに達する必要があります。
- 多大な財政的影響： 在庫レベルを倍増させるには、原油調達に推定60,000クロール（約6,000億ルピー）、さらに新たな貯蔵インフラに数千億ルピーが必要になる可能性があります。
- 戦略の転換： この動きは、中東への地理的な近接性に依存する体制から、より自立した、備蓄重視のエネルギー安全保障モデルへの転換を意味します。