Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows Following Iran Ceasefire Deal
Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices tumbled to their lowest levels since before the onset of the Iran war. The price drop follows a landmark interim ceasefire deal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing sanctions on Tehran, significantly easing fears of a global supply crunch.
De-risking the Strait of Hormuz
The primary driver behind the price volatility reduction is the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint that previously saw disrupted flows affecting 20% of the world's oil supply.
The deal mandates that traffic through the strait must be restored to full capacity within 30 days. As Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, noted, the potential reopening removes the massive "risk premium" that had been priced into crude due to supply fears. While full normalization involving insurance and sanctions relief may take time, the market is reacting to the immediate removal of the most pessimistic supply disruption scenarios.
Market Data and Price Movements
The impact on benchmarks was immediate and sharp. Brent crude futures dropped by $1.85 (2.33%) to trade at $77.69 per barrel, marking its lowest point since February 27, the final trading day before the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by $1.89 (2.46%) to $74.90 per barrel, hitting its lowest level since March 4.
The interim accord also includes a massive economic component, requiring the United States and its partners to develop a $300-billion recovery plan for Iran. However, the deal remains preliminary, deferring complex issues such as Iran's nuclear program to a later stage.
Expert Projections: A New Price Floor?
While the immediate trend is bearish, industry experts suggest the decline may not be infinite. Goldman Sachs predicts that Gulf exports could normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, with full crude production recovering by October. Specifically, the bank expects a 13 million barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows to reach approximately 70% of pre-war levels.
למרות הרפיית המתחים, BNP Paribas שומרת על תחזית זהירה, ומצביעה על כך ש-$75 לחבית עשויים לשמש כ"רצפה יציבה" לעתיד הנראה לעין, בשל אובדן היצע מתמשך וביקוש חזק. יתרה מכך, הדינמיקה של הביקוש לטווח ארוך נותרת גורם משפיע; יחידת המחקר של PetroChina חוזה כי צריכת הנפט של סין עלולה לרדת ב-4.9% בשנת 2026, בעוד המדינה עוברת למקורות אנרגיה חדשים.
נקודות מרכזיות
- ייצוב ההיצע: הסכם הפסקת האש ופתיחת מחדש של מצר הורמוז צפויים להשיב את זרמי הנפט החיוניים, ובכך להסיר את פרמיית הסיכון הגיאופוליטית ממחירי הנפט הגולמי.
- מדדי מחיר: נפט Brent נסוג ל-$77.69, רמתו הנמוכה ביותר מאז סוף פברואר, בעוד WTI ירד ל-$74.90.
- לוח זמנים לנורמליזציה: Goldman Sachs צופה כי היצוא ממדינות המפרץ יחזור לרמות שלפני המלחמה עד סוף יולי, אם כי אנליסטים כמו BNP Paribas מצביעים על כך ש-$75 נותר רמת תמיכה קריטית.