Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows as Iran Ceasefire Deal Boosts Supply

Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices tumbled to their lowest levels since before the onset of the Iran war. An interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz has successfully removed the massive risk premium that had been inflating energy costs worldwide.

The Impact of the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding

The primary driver behind the sudden price drop is a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran. This preliminary accord initiates a 60-day negotiation window during which Iran has agreed to allow toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint that accounts for approximately 20% of global oil flows.

Under the terms of the deal, traffic through the strait is expected to return to full capacity within 30 days. While complex issues like Iran’s nuclear program remain deferred, the agreement includes a massive $300-billion financing plan proposed by the U.S. and its partners to support Iran's economic recovery. This shift in the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally altered the supply outlook, causing Brent crude futures to drop by $1.85 (2.33%) to $77.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $74.90.

Expert Projections: When Will Supply Normalize?

Market analysts are closely watching the timeline for the complete restoration of oil flows. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eliminates the "big risk premium" that was previously baked into crude prices due to disrupted flows.

Investment giant Goldman Sachs has provided a structured timeline for recovery, suggesting that Gulf exports could normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, with full crude production recovery expected by October. The bank estimates that reaching roughly 70% of pre-war flow levels would require an increase of 13 million barrels per day (bpd) through the Strait of Hormuz.

Demand Headwinds and Price Floors

Despite the supply surge, experts caution that prices may not enter a freefall. BNP Paribas has identified $75 per barrel as a "durable floor" for the foreseeable future, citing ongoing supply losses and robust demand.

Además, las perspectivas de la demanda a largo plazo siguen siendo cautelosas. Un informe de la unidad de investigación de PetroChina prevé que China, el segundo mayor consumidor de petróleo del mundo, verá caer su consumo a 753 millones de toneladas métricas en 2026, lo que representa una disminución del 4,9 % respecto a los niveles de 2025. Este descenso se atribuye a un giro estratégico hacia nuevas fuentes de energía y al impacto de los precios elevados y sostenidos del petróleo. Además, la volatilidad geopolítica persiste en otros lugares, como lo demuestran los recientes ataques con drones ucranianos contra refinerías de petróleo rusas, lo que mantiene una base de incertidumbre en el mercado.

Conclusiones clave

  • Aumento de la oferta: El acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Irán y EE. UU. tiene como objetivo restaurar la capacidad total en el estrecho de Ormuz en un plazo de 30 días, eliminando una importante prima de riesgo geopolítico.
  • Cronograma de recuperación: Goldman Sachs predice que las exportaciones del Golfo se normalizarán a finales de julio, y se prevé una recuperación total de la producción para octubre.
  • Soporte de precios: Los analistas esperan un suelo de precios de alrededor de $75 por barril debido a factores de demanda y a la disminución proyectada del consumo de petróleo en China para 2026.