Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows as Iran Ceasefire Deal Boosts Supply

Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices tumbled to their lowest levels since before the onset of the Iran war. An interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz has successfully removed the massive risk premium that had been inflating energy costs worldwide.

The Impact of the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding

The primary driver behind the sudden price drop is a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran. This preliminary accord initiates a 60-day negotiation window during which Iran has agreed to allow toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint that accounts for approximately 20% of global oil flows.

Under the terms of the deal, traffic through the strait is expected to return to full capacity within 30 days. While complex issues like Iran’s nuclear program remain deferred, the agreement includes a massive $300-billion financing plan proposed by the U.S. and its partners to support Iran's economic recovery. This shift in the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally altered the supply outlook, causing Brent crude futures to drop by $1.85 (2.33%) to $77.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $74.90.

Expert Projections: When Will Supply Normalize?

Market analysts are closely watching the timeline for the complete restoration of oil flows. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eliminates the "big risk premium" that was previously baked into crude prices due to disrupted flows.

Investment giant Goldman Sachs has provided a structured timeline for recovery, suggesting that Gulf exports could normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, with full crude production recovery expected by October. The bank estimates that reaching roughly 70% of pre-war flow levels would require an increase of 13 million barrels per day (bpd) through the Strait of Hormuz.

Demand Headwinds and Price Floors

Despite the supply surge, experts caution that prices may not enter a freefall. BNP Paribas has identified $75 per barrel as a "durable floor" for the foreseeable future, citing ongoing supply losses and robust demand.

Inoltre, le prospettive della domanda a lungo termine rimangono prudenti. Un rapporto dell'unità di ricerca di PetroChina prevede che la Cina, il secondo consumatore di petrolio al mondo, vedrà i propri consumi scendere a 753 milioni di tonnellate metriche nel 2026, con una diminuzione del 4,9% rispetto ai livelli del 2025. Questo calo è attribuito a una svolta strategica verso nuove fonti energetiche e all'impatto dei prezzi del petrolio costantemente elevati. Inoltre, la volatilità geopolitica persiste altrove, come dimostrato dai recenti attacchi con droni ucraini alle raffinerie di petrolio russe, mantenendo un livello di incertezza di base sul mercato.

Punti chiave

  • Aumento dell'offerta: L'accordo di cessate il fuoco tra Iran e Stati Uniti mira a ripristinare la piena capacità nello Stretto di Hormuz entro 30 giorni, eliminando un importante premio per il rischio geopolitico.
  • Tempistiche di ripresa: Goldman Sachs prevede che le esportazioni del Golfo si normalizzeranno entro la fine di luglio, con un pieno recupero della produzione previsto per ottobre.
  • Supporto dei prezzi: Gli analisti prevedono un prezzo minimo intorno ai 75 dollari al barile a causa dei fattori della domanda e del calo previsto dei consumi di petrolio in Cina entro il 2026.