Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows as Iran Ceasefire Deal Boosts Supply

Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices plunged to levels not seen since before the onset of the Iran war. The sudden price drop follows an interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz and easing long-standing sanctions on Tehran.

De-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Drives Price Drop

The primary catalyst for the market rally is the removal of the "risk premium" that had been inflating oil prices due to geopolitical instability. Brent crude futures dropped by $1.85 (2.33%) to $77.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by $1.89 (2.46%) to $74.90 per barrel.

This downward movement marks the lowest level for Brent since February 27, the final trading day before initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Analysts, including Phil Flynn from Price Futures Group, noted that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which accounts for 20% of global oil flows—effectively eliminates the supply disruption fears that had been baked into crude prices.

The 14-Point Memorandum and Economic Recovery Plan

The ceasefire is anchored by a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Crucially, the deal mandates that maritime traffic through the strait must be restored to full capacity within 30 days.

While the agreement defers complex issues like Iran's nuclear program, it introduces a massive economic component: the United States and its partners are tasked with developing a $300-billion plan to finance Iran's economic recovery. This move signals a strategic shift toward stability in the Middle East, though experts warn that full normalization of insurance and repairs may take several weeks.

Market Outlook: Can Prices Drop Further?

Meskipun terjadi penurunan harga yang mendadak, lembaga keuangan utama tetap berhati-hati terhadap kemungkinan jatuhnya harga minyak mentah secara total. Goldman Sachs memprediksi bahwa ekspor Teluk dapat kembali normal ke tingkat sebelum perang pada akhir Juli, dengan pemulihan produksi minyak mentah secara penuh yang diharapkan terjadi pada bulan Oktober. Estimasi mereka menunjukkan bahwa diperlukan peningkatan aliran di Hormuz sebesar 13 juta barel per hari untuk mencapai sekitar 70% dari tingkat sebelum perang.

Namun, BNP Paribas menyarankan bahwa $75 per barel dapat bertindak sebagai "lantai harga yang stabil" untuk masa mendatang, dengan alasan kerugian pasokan yang terus berlangsung dan permintaan global yang berkelanjutan. Selain itu, sinyal permintaan jangka panjang tetap kompleks; unit riset PetroChina memperkirakan bahwa konsumsi minyak Tiongkok dapat turun sebesar 4,9% pada tahun 2026 (menjadi 753 juta metrik ton) seiring dengan peralihan negara tersebut ke sumber energi baru.

Poin-Poin Penting

  • Normalisasi Pasokan: Perjanjian gencatan senjata bertujuan untuk memulihkan kapasitas penuh di Selat Hormuz dalam waktu 30 hari, yang akan menghilangkan premi risiko besar dari harga minyak global.
  • Lantai Harga: Meskipun harga menyentuh level terendah sebelum perang, analis seperti BNP Paribas memperkirakan tingkat dukungan di sekitar $75 per barel karena adanya kesenjangan pasokan dan tren permintaan saat ini.
  • Pergeseran Geopolitik: Rencana pemulihan senilai $300 miliar dan jendela negosiasi selama 60 hari menandai pergeseran diplomatik yang signifikan, meskipun faktor eksternal seperti serangan drone terhadap kilang minyak Rusia terus menambah volatilitas.