Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows as Iran Ceasefire Deal Boosts Supply

Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices plunged to levels not seen since before the onset of the Iran war. The sudden price drop follows an interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz and easing long-standing sanctions on Tehran.

De-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Drives Price Drop

The primary catalyst for the market rally is the removal of the "risk premium" that had been inflating oil prices due to geopolitical instability. Brent crude futures dropped by $1.85 (2.33%) to $77.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by $1.89 (2.46%) to $74.90 per barrel.

This downward movement marks the lowest level for Brent since February 27, the final trading day before initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Analysts, including Phil Flynn from Price Futures Group, noted that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which accounts for 20% of global oil flows—effectively eliminates the supply disruption fears that had been baked into crude prices.

The 14-Point Memorandum and Economic Recovery Plan

The ceasefire is anchored by a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Crucially, the deal mandates that maritime traffic through the strait must be restored to full capacity within 30 days.

While the agreement defers complex issues like Iran's nuclear program, it introduces a massive economic component: the United States and its partners are tasked with developing a $300-billion plan to finance Iran's economic recovery. This move signals a strategic shift toward stability in the Middle East, though experts warn that full normalization of insurance and repairs may take several weeks.

Market Outlook: Can Prices Drop Further?

尽管价格立即下跌，但主要的金融机构对原油价格的全面崩盘仍持谨慎态度。高盛（Goldman Sachs）预测，到 7 月底，海湾地区的出口可能会恢复到战前水平，预计到 10 月原油产量将全面恢复。他们的估计表明，霍尔木兹海峡的流量需要每天增加 1300 万桶，才能达到战前水平的约 70%。

然而，法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）指出，由于持续的供应损失和持续的全球需求，在可预见的未来，每桶 75 美元可能会成为一个“持久的底部”。此外，长期需求信号依然复杂；中石油（PetroChina）的研究部门预测，随着中国转向新能源，2026 年中国的石油消费量可能会下降 4.9%（降至 7.53 亿公吨）。

核心要点

• 供应正常化： 停火协议旨在 30 天内恢复霍尔木兹海峡的全部产能，从而消除全球油价中的巨额风险溢价。
• 价格底部： 尽管价格跌至战前低点，但由于现有的供应缺口和需求趋势，像法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）这样的分析师预计支撑位将在每桶 75 美元左右。
• 地缘政治转变： 一项 3000 亿美元的复苏计划和 60 天的谈判窗口标志着重大的外交转变，尽管针对俄罗斯炼油厂的无人机袭击等外部因素仍在增加波动性。