Brent Crude Hits Pre-War Lows as Iran Ceasefire Deal Boosts Supply

Global oil markets witnessed a significant correction on Thursday as Brent crude prices plunged to levels not seen since before the onset of the Iran war. The sudden price drop follows an interim ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz and easing long-standing sanctions on Tehran.

De-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Drives Price Drop

The primary catalyst for the market rally is the removal of the "risk premium" that had been inflating oil prices due to geopolitical instability. Brent crude futures dropped by $1.85 (2.33%) to $77.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by $1.89 (2.46%) to $74.90 per barrel.

This downward movement marks the lowest level for Brent since February 27, the final trading day before initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Analysts, including Phil Flynn from Price Futures Group, noted that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which accounts for 20% of global oil flows—effectively eliminates the supply disruption fears that had been baked into crude prices.

The 14-Point Memorandum and Economic Recovery Plan

The ceasefire is anchored by a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran. This agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran has committed to allowing toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Crucially, the deal mandates that maritime traffic through the strait must be restored to full capacity within 30 days.

While the agreement defers complex issues like Iran's nuclear program, it introduces a massive economic component: the United States and its partners are tasked with developing a $300-billion plan to finance Iran's economic recovery. This move signals a strategic shift toward stability in the Middle East, though experts warn that full normalization of insurance and repairs may take several weeks.

Market Outlook: Can Prices Drop Further?

Walaupun berlaku penurunan harga serta-merta, institusi kewangan utama kekal berhati-hati terhadap kejatuhan menyeluruh harga minyak mentah. Goldman Sachs meramalkan bahawa eksport Teluk boleh kembali normal ke tahap sebelum perang menjelang akhir Julai, dengan pemulihan pengeluaran minyak mentah sepenuhnya dijangka menjelang Oktober. Anggaran mereka menunjukkan peningkatan aliran sebanyak 13 juta tong sehari di Hormuz diperlukan untuk mencapai kira-kira 70% daripada tahap sebelum perang.

Walau bagaimanapun, BNP Paribas mencadangkan bahawa $75 se tong mungkin bertindak sebagai "lantai yang mampan" untuk masa hadapan yang boleh diramalkan, dengan memetik kerugian bekalan yang berterusan dan permintaan global yang stabil. Tambahan pula, isyarat permintaan jangka panjang kekal kompleks; unit penyelidikan PetroChina meramalkan bahawa penggunaan minyak China boleh turun sebanyak 4.9% pada tahun 2026 (kepada 753 juta tan metrik) memandangkan negara itu beralih ke arah sumber tenaga baharu.

Ringkasan Utama

  • Normalisasi Bekalan: Perjanjian gencatan senjata bertujuan untuk memulihkan kapasiti penuh di Selat Hormuz dalam tempoh 30 hari, sekali gus menghapuskan premium risiko yang besar daripada harga minyak global.
  • Lantai Harga: Walaupun harga mencecah tahap rendah sebelum perang, penganalisis seperti BNP Paribas menjangkakan tahap sokongan sekitar $75 se tong disebabkan jurang bekalan sedia ada dan trend permintaan.
  • Peralihan Geopolitik: Pelan pemulihan bernilai $300 bilion dan tempoh rundingan selama 60 hari menandakan peralihan diplomatik yang ketara, walaupun faktor luaran seperti serangan dron ke atas loji penapis Rusia terus menambah ketidaktentuan.