Global Markets Rally as US-Iran Deal Eases Energy Risks Amid Fed Hawkishness
Global equity markets are witnessing a relief rally as a landmark interim deal between the US and Iran promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, significantly reducing energy supply anxieties. While this geopolitical breakthrough supports stock futures, investors are simultaneously recalibrating expectations following the Federal Reserve's signal that interest rate hikes may be necessary to curb persistent inflation.
Geopolitical Breakthrough: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
A major shift in global sentiment occurred after President Donald Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to end the conflict with Iran. Signed near Paris following a G7 meeting, the deal aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil supplies.
The impact on commodities was immediate. Brent crude prices slumped by more than 1%, dropping below the $79 per barrel mark. Financial analysts, including Rajeev De Mello of Gama Asset Management, noted that this development should reduce energy-related risk premia and ease broader inflation concerns, providing much-needed support to both bond and equity markets.
The Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Pivot
Despite the positive news from the Middle East, the Federal Reserve's latest stance has injected volatility into the fixed-income markets. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability, noting that inflation has remained above the 2% target for several years.
The market is now pricing in significant policy shifts:
- Rate Hike Expectations: Roughly half of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members project rate hikes this year, with traders eyeing a potential move as early as September or October.
- Yield Surges: Two-year US Treasury yields jumped 13 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting the market's reaction to the Fed's "hawkish shot across the bow."
- Balance Sheet Review: In a significant move, Chair Warsh announced a task force to review the Fed’s massive $6.7 trillion balance sheet to determine the effectiveness of its monetary policy tools.
Impact on Asian Markets and Currencies
Kesan riak dasar monetari AS dirasai dengan kuat di seluruh Asia. Walaupun saham Asia meningkat sebanyak 0.5% dan niaga hadapan Nasdaq melonjak lebih 1%, ekonomi serantau tertentu menghadapi tekanan segera.
Di Jepun, yen telah jatuh ke tahap terlemahnya berbanding dolar AS sejak Julai 2024. Walaupun terdapat kenaikan kadar baru-baru ini ke tahap tertinggi sejak 1995, pelabur bimbang Bank of Japan tidak mengetatkan dasar dengan cukup pantas untuk menstabilkan mata wang tersebut. Sementara itu, di ekonomi membangun Asia Tenggara seperti Indonesia dan Filipina—yang kedua-duanya sebelum ini terjejas teruk oleh harga minyak yang tinggi—pakar ekonomi menjangkakan bank pusat akan menaikkan kadar dasar sebanyak 25 mata asas minggu ini untuk mengekalkan kestabilan ekonomi.
Ringkasan Utama
- Kelegaan Tenaga: Perjanjian interim AS-Iran untuk membuka semula Selat Hormuz telah mendorong harga minyak mentah Brent jatuh ke bawah $79, sekali gus mengurangkan kebimbangan bekalan tenaga global.
- Sikap Hawkish Fed: Rizab Persekutuan telah memberi isyarat potensi kenaikan kadar faedah pada akhir tahun ini untuk memerangi inflasi, menyebabkan hasil perbendaharaan AS meningkat.
- Ketidaktentuan Mata Wang: Yen Jepun telah mencecah tahap terendah dalam tempoh berbulan-bulan berbanding dolar, manakala bank pusat Asia Tenggara bersedia untuk kenaikan kadar secara awal.