Arvind Panagariya 主张设立专门的私有化部
前 Niti Aayog 副主席 Arvind Panagariya 号召战略性地重启印度的资产减持议程，并提议设立一个专门的私有化部。他认为，在 India@2047 愿景下，积极出售国有企业 (PSU) 和银行对于印度经济的现代化至关重要。
设立专门私有化部的理由
目前担任第 16 届财政委员会主席的 Arvind Panagariya 认为，资产减持仍然是印度经济改革的基石。为了加速这一进程，他主张建立一个专门负责私有化的独立部委。
Panagariya 强调，无论地缘政治局势如何不明朗，还是西亚地区出现危机，政府都必须重启国有企业 (PSU) 和大多数国有银行 (PSB) 的私有化进程。他坚持认为，这一举措对于结构性改革以及将印度转型为现代化、高增长经济体的长期目标而言是不可或缺的。
分析 FDI 流入与资本流出
在回应有关资本流出的担忧时，Panagariya 强调了印度外商直接投资 (FDI) 的韧性。他指出，FDI 总流入量呈现稳步上升趋势，从 2024 财年的 713 亿美元增长到 2025 财年的 806 亿美元，并预计在 2026 财年达到 945 亿美元。
他澄清说，近期的资本流出主要由两个因素驱动：
- 私募股权退出： 大部分 FDI 是通过私募股权进入的。随着印度企业通过加速发展的 IPO 市场实现上市，这些投资者自然会退出头寸。
- 印度企业的全球扩张： 他指出，印度企业海外投资的增加是企业成熟的标志，而非引起恐慌的原因。
关于外国组合投资 (FPI)，Panagariya 将近期的流出归因于印度股票估值过高。不过，他预计在经历必要的估值回调后，这些流出将在 2027 财年趋于稳定。
卢比贬值与出口竞争力
The economist also weighed in on the stability of the Indian Rupee. He suggested that recent depreciation has helped correct a period where the currency was significantly overvalued. Panagariya cautioned the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) against the "psychological trap" of preventing the rupee from crossing the Rs 100-per-dollar mark for too long.
He linked currency valuation directly to trade performance, noting that an overvalued rupee can hamper merchandise exports. Highlighting historical trends, he pointed out how exports fluctuated between $260 billion and $320 billion in previous years, suggesting that a competitive currency is vital for export growth.
Inflation and Monsoon Outlook
Despite concerns over below-average monsoon forecasts, Panagariya remains optimistic about India's food security and inflation outlook. He noted that India's dependence on rainfall has diminished due to better infrastructure, stating that water reservoirs are in good shape and buffer stocks remain robust. He observed that farmers appear optimistic, evidenced by an increase in the area sown compared to last year.
Key Takeaways
- Structural Reform: Panagariya proposes a dedicated privatisation ministry to expedite the disinvestment of PSUs and public sector banks.
- FDI Resilience: Despite exits by private equity investors during IPO cycles, gross FDI is projected to reach $94.5 billion by FY26.
- Currency & Trade: A controlled depreciation of the Rupee is viewed as essential to maintain export competitiveness and correct overvaluation.