How the US Secretly Managed Gulf Oil Flows Amidst Hormuz Blockade

The Middle East crisis has disrupted one of the world's most critical energy arteries, causing massive ripples in global economies. To counter the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has deployed a covert ship-to-ship transfer operation to ensure crude oil continues to reach international markets.

Adopting the "Sanctions-Busting" Playbook

In a surprising tactical shift, the US military has adopted methods traditionally associated with Iran’s own sanctions-evasion techniques. Rather than providing traditional naval escorts, the US military has taken direct control of a secretive ship-to-ship transfer system. This operation involves intensive aerial surveillance, rigorous compliance checks, and constant monitoring to ensure energy exports move despite the heightened regional tensions.

The operation, which began in early May, utilizes a two-tier maritime strategy. Smaller tankers navigate the high-risk waters of the Strait of Hormuz before meeting larger Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) at offshore hubs. These transfers are concentrated at two primary locations: Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates and a secondary hub near Oman’s port of Sohar.

The Mechanics of the Secretive Transfer System

The logistics of this operation are highly disciplined to avoid detection and Iranian interference. To maintain safety and secrecy, tankers follow a strict protocol:

• Staggered Movement: Vessels depart at intervals to ensure they remain approximately 3,000 to 4,000 metres apart.
• Stealth Tactics: Ships are required to switch off their transponders and dim all lights during transit to minimize their electronic and visual footprint.
• Extended Transfers: The process of transferring oil from smaller vessels to VLCCs is time-intensive, taking between 24 and 40 hours to complete.

The US Navy's Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping office in Bahrain manages the process, vetting shipping companies through strict compliance checks before assigning transit slots. Satellite imagery suggests the operation peaked on June 11, with 17 pairs of ships conducting transfers simultaneously across the two hubs.

Operation by the Numbers: Impact and Risks

While the operation has been vital for maintaining some level of supply, the scale of the disruption remains significant. Based on satellite imagery and shipping data, it is estimated that at least 90 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products have moved through this offshore network since early May. However, this is a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz every single day.

The operation is not without its perils. Industry officials have raised concerns regarding the increased risk of maritime collisions, as ships navigate at night without lights and at speeds that limit their ability to perform emergency maneuvers. Despite these risks, the system has served as a critical buffer against what has been described as the largest global energy supply shock in history.

Key Takeaways

• Tactical Shift: The US military is managing a secretive ship-to-ship transfer system using stealth tactics like turning off transponders and dimming lights to bypass the Iranian blockade.
• Strategic Hubs: Operations are centered around Fujairah (UAE) and Sohar (Oman), involving at least 116 vessels to move an estimated 90 million barrels of oil since May.
• Supply Gap: While the covert network has helped, the 90 million barrels moved is significantly lower than the 20 million barrels of daily throughput normally seen in the Strait.