US Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged but Signals Year-End Hike Under Kevin Warsh

In his first policy review as Chair, Kevin Warsh-led FOMC has decided to maintain the federal funds rate within the 3.5% to 3.75% range. While the central bank opted for stability this time, a hawkish shift in projections suggests that borrowing costs may climb before the year concludes.

Warsh’s Debut: A Hawkish Turn for the Federal Reserve

Marking a significant transition in monetary leadership, Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting concluded with a unanimous decision to keep interest rates steady. Despite the pause, the tone from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was decidedly cautious. The committee noted that while economic activity remains solid with strong capital investment and job gains, "elevated uncertainty"—partly driven by Middle East conflicts—continues to cloud the outlook.

In a notable move, the Fed has also removed its forward guidance regarding the future path of interest rates, granting the committee more flexibility to react to evolving economic data.

Inflation Projections Revised Higher

The most striking takeaway from the meeting was the upward revision of inflation forecasts. The central bank signaled that price pressures are expected to persist much longer than previously anticipated. Currently at a three-year high, inflation is now not expected to return to the Fed’s preferred 2% target before 2028.

The Summary of Economic Projections highlighted a significant jump in the forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The Fed now projects the PCE to reach 3.6% by the end of 2026, a sharp increase from the 2.7% estimate released in March. This shift is largely attributed to supply shocks, particularly in the energy sector.

Imminent Rate Hikes on the Horizon

While the pause met market expectations, the internal consensus among policymakers points toward tightening. Out of the 19 officials participating in the Summary of Economic Projections, 18 projected at least one interest rate increase before the end of the year.

Questo sentiment hawkish è alimentato dai recenti dati che mostrano un'inflazione in crescita al 4,2%, trainata pesantemente dall'aumento dei costi del carburante. Con il tasso di disoccupazione stabile e i trend di assunzione in miglioramento, gli argomenti tradizionali a favore di un allentamento della politica monetaria si sono indeboliti. Di conseguenza, la Fed sembra posizionata per alzare i tassi al fine di prevenire un'ulteriore inflazione trainata dalla domanda, mentre i mercati monitorano la volatilità dei prezzi del petrolio greggio.

Un nuovo stile di leadership alla Fed

Al di là dei numeri, la transizione da Jerome Powell a Kevin Warsh segnala un cambiamento culturale all'interno della banca centrale. Mentre Powell era noto per uno stile di comunicazione diretto e accessibile, ci si aspetta che Warsh adotti un approccio più "misurato ed enigmatico", che ricorda l'ex presidente Alan Greenspan. Gli osservatori prevedono che Warsh dia priorità a estese deliberazioni interne rispetto a frequenti discorsi pubblici, riducendo potenzialmente la quantità di commenti economici a breve termine forniti ai mercati.

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