Global Markets: Central Banks Remain Cautious Despite US-Iran Truce

The recent truce between the United States and Iran has triggered a sharp decline in global oil prices, offering much-needed relief to policymakers fearing energy-driven inflation. However, despite this cooling of energy costs, major central banks across the G10 economies are maintaining a vigilant stance, signaling that interest rate hikes remain on the table if price pressures persist.

Diverging Monetary Paths Across Developed Economies

While lower energy costs have eased immediate inflationary fears, there is no global consensus on the next move for interest rates. Central banks are currently divided between those aggressively tightening policy and those adopting a "wait-and-see" approach.

Australia currently leads the G10 with the highest policy rate at 4.35%. After reversing all of last year's rate cuts through three increases this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia has paused briefly but remains open to further hikes. Similarly, Norway holds the second-highest rate at 4.25%. Despite a pause, Norway's Norges Bank maintains a hawkish tone due to an unexpected acceleration in core inflation during May.

In contrast, Canada’s central bank has maintained its policy rate at 2.25%, noting that higher energy prices have not yet triggered broader inflation, keeping rates stable for the foreseeable future.

The US Federal Reserve and European Outlook

The US Federal Reserve has sent unexpected signals to investors. Although rates were recently left unchanged, updated economic projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell have shifted market expectations. Nine Fed officials now anticipate higher rates by the end of 2026, leading traders to price in a potential hike as early as September.

In Europe, the landscape is equally complex:

• European Central Bank (ECB): Recently delivered its first rate increase in nearly three years, raising the benchmark deposit rate to 2.25% to pre-emptively combat energy-linked inflation.
• United Kingdom: The Bank of England has held its benchmark rate at 3.75%, assessing whether the impact of energy prices will be moderate or severe.
• Sweden: The Riksbank remains cautious at 1.75%, acknowledging Middle East tensions as a risk while noting that underlying inflation remains relatively subdued.

Asia and the Global Extremes

En Asie, la Banque du Japon a fait des progrès significatifs dans la normalisation de sa politique monétaire, portant ses taux d'intérêt à 1 %, le niveau le plus élevé depuis plus de trois décennies. Bien que ces taux restent faibles par rapport aux pays occidentaux, la banque centrale a signalé sa volonté de durcir davantage sa politique si les pressions sur les prix persistent.

À l'autre extrémité du spectre, la Suisse demeure l'exception mondiale avec un taux directeur de 0 %. La Banque nationale suisse considère que l'inflation à moyen terme est stable et se concentre actuellement davantage sur la gestion de la force du franc suisse que sur des hausses de taux agressives.

Points clés

• Soulagement pétrolier vs risque d'inflation : Bien que la trêve entre les États-Unis et l'Iran ait fait baisser les prix du pétrole, les banques centrales ne sont pas encore convaincues que la menace d'une « inflation importée » se soit totalement dissipée.
• Divergence des politiques : Il existe une fracture importante dans la stratégie mondiale, allant du taux de 0 % de la Suisse à celui de 4,35 % de l'Australie, alors que les nations cherchent un équilibre entre croissance et stabilité des prix.
• Posture restrictive : Les principales institutions, telles que la Réserve fédérale américaine et la BCE, restent prêtes à mettre en œuvre de nouvelles hausses de taux si les données économiques montrent des tendances inflationnistes persistantes.