India’s Travel Tech Boom: Why Motilal Oswal Favours TBO Tek and Ixigo

India’s travel and leisure sector is undergoing a massive structural transformation, shifting from a fragmented offline market to a digitally-led ecosystem. As rising disposable incomes and improved infrastructure fuel demand, online travel platforms are positioned to capture a significant share of this burgeoning market.

A Rapidly Expanding Online Travel Market

The Indian online travel market is set to outpace global growth trends significantly. Projections indicate the market will expand from approximately INR 2.1 trillion in FY23 to INR 3.8 trillion by FY28, representing a robust CAGR of around 13%.

A critical driver of this growth is the increasing digital penetration. Currently, online channels account for about 54% of total travel bookings, but this is expected to rise to nearly 65%. This shift is being powered by several structural tailwinds, including favorable demographics, increased workforce participation, and a consumer pivot toward experience-led spending. Furthermore, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is expected to revolutionize the sector through hyper-personalized planning and real-time decision-making.

TBO Tek: Leveraging Global Synergies

Motilal Oswal maintains a "BUY" stance on TBO Tek, citing its diversified platform and strong execution capabilities. Despite geopolitical disruptions, the company has shown remarkable resilience. In 4QFY26, TBO Tek reported an 83% YoY revenue growth, largely bolstered by the consolidation of Classic Vacations. Even when looking at organic growth, revenue increased by 21% YoY.

The company's growth trajectory is expected to remain steep, with projected revenue, EBIT, and PAT CAGRs of 37%, 35%, and 30% respectively over the FY25-28E period. This growth is expected to be driven by higher-margin segments such as hotels and ancillary services, alongside the expanding scale gained from the Classic Vacations integration.

Ixigo: Dominating the Tier-2 and Tier-3 Segments

Le Travenues Technology (Ixigo) has carved out a unique niche by capturing the massive demand in non-metro markets. With a monthly active user base of 85 million, approximately 94% of Ixigo's bookings have an origin or destination in non-tier-1 cities.

Ixigo si posiziona come un attore formidabile nel settore OTA, vantando un Gross Transaction Value (GTV) per l'anno fiscale 2026 (FY26) di 187 miliardi di INR. Detiene una quota di mercato dominante del 60% nel segmento della biglietteria ferroviaria, consolidando al contempo la sua presenza nelle prenotazioni di voli (75 mld di INR) e autobus (26 mld di INR). Gli analisti stimano che Ixigo registrerà un significativo CAGR dell'EBITDA del 59% tra il FY26 e il FY28E, con margini che dovrebbero migliorare di 400 bps per raggiungere il 10% entro il FY28E grazie alla leva operativa.

Punti Chiave

  • Espansione del mercato: Si prevede che il mercato dei viaggi online in India crescerà da 2,1 trilioni di INR (FY23) a 3,8 trilioni di INR (FY28), trainato da un aumento delle prenotazioni digitali al 65%.
  • Prospettive di TBO Tek: Si prevede un CAGR dei ricavi del 37% (FY25-28E) grazie all'espansione internazionale e all'integrazione di Classic Vacations.
  • La nicchia di Ixigo: Domina il mercato non metropolitano, con il 94% delle prenotazioni che ha origine o destinazione in città non tier-1, e detiene una quota del 60% nella biglietteria ferroviaria.