Financials in a Sweet Spot, Defence Remains a Structural Bet: Dharmesh Kant

Market expert Dharmesh Kant of Cholamandalam Securities suggests that financial stocks are poised to lead India's next market rally, driven by robust credit growth and improving margins. While a short-term relief rally is expected through June and July, long-term structural plays in defence and healthcare offer significant upside potential for investors.

Financials: The Engine of the Next Rally

According to Kant, the banking and financial services sector is currently in a "sweet spot." Unlike previous cycles, financial institutions are entering this phase with strengthening Net Interest Margins (NIMs) and healthy credit growth. He noted that even the possibility of interest rate hikes could act as a catalyst for the sector rather than a deterrent.

Furthermore, the microfinance lending segment is showing signs of recovery. Kant highlighted that lower funding costs and sustained loan demand are strengthening the overall outlook. He expressed confidence that government support mechanisms will act as a buffer, preventing any significant deterioration in asset quality even if the broader economic landscape softens.

Defence and Healthcare: Safe Havens Amid Monsoon Uncertainty

While the market may see a breather in the coming months, Kant warned that investor sentiment in the latter half of the year will depend heavily on the monsoon progress, which currently appears "scary." To mitigate this risk, he recommends pivoting toward sectors that are insulated from weather-related volatility.

Defence remains his primary structural recommendation. Kant believes the sector still has a 40% to 50% upside potential over the next two to three years, fueled by massive order inflows and the push for indigenisation. Specific companies to watch include:

• Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL): Benefiting from growing aerospace cooperation, particularly with France.
• Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders: Targeted for its potential involvement in the ₹1 lakh crore Project-75 submarine programme.
• Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL): Noted for its robust order book.

In addition to defence, the healthcare sector—encompassing hospital chains, diagnostics, and pharmacies—is viewed as a resilient play regardless of economic fluctuations.

Sectors to Avoid: Oil, Metals, and Overvalued Paints

カント氏はいくつかのセクターに対して注意を促しており、特に石油販売会社（OMC）や石油生産者からは距離を置くよう投資家に推奨しています。彼は化石燃料業界を「サンセット・セクター（衰退産業）」と分類し、長期的な需要が弱まっていること、また世界的な供給過剰の可能性が原油価格をさらに押し下げる可能性があると指摘しています。

原油価格の下落は一般的に特定の業界に利益をもたらしますが、カント氏は塗料メーカーよりもタイヤメーカーを優先することを提案しています。彼は、塗料株は依然として割高な水準にある一方で、タイヤ会社はゴム価格の安定と自動車需要の強さから、より直接的な恩恵を受ける可能性があると述べています。逆に、消費関連ビジネスや金属セクターについては、先行きが不透明であるため、引き続き慎重な姿勢を保っています。

主なポイント

• 金融セクターが牽引: NIM（純利ざや）の改善、健全な信用成長、およびマイクロファイナンス部門の回復により、銀行やNBFC（非銀行金融会社）は有利な立場にあります。
• 防衛セクターは構造的な勝者: 膨大な受注フローと国産化の進展により、防衛セクターは2〜3年で40〜50%の上昇余地を秘めています。
• 戦略的な分散投資: 投資家は、石油のような「サンセット・セクター」や割高な塗料株を避け、ヘルスケアやタイヤのような影響を受けにくいセクターに目を向けるべきです。