Global Markets Rally as US-Iran Deal Eases Energy Risks and Oil Slumps

Global equity markets found renewed optimism today as an interim deal between the US and Iran signaled the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While geopolitical tensions eased, investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance regarding inflation and future interest rate hikes.

Geopolitical Relief Drives Oil Prices Lower

The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by President Donald Trump has provided a significant boost to investor sentiment. This deal, signed near Paris following a G7 meeting, aims to end the conflict with Iran and facilitate the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The market reaction was immediate: Brent crude fell by more than 1%, dropping below the $79 per barrel mark. According to Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management, this development is expected to reduce energy-related risk premia and ease global inflation concerns, providing much-needed support for both bond and equity markets.

Federal Reserve Signals Potential Rate Hikes

Despite the geopolitical tailwinds, the macroeconomic outlook remains cautious due to the Federal Reserve's recent communications. Following a 1.2% drop in the US benchmark on Wednesday, US stock futures showed signs of recovery, with Nasdaq futures jumping over 1% and S&P 500 contracts climbing 0.8%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target. Crucially, roughly half of the Fed policymakers projected rate hikes within this year. This hawkish tilt has led traders to price in an increase as early as September or October. Consequently, two-year US Treasury yields jumped 13 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting market sensitivity to policy expectations.

Focus on the Fed’s $6.7 Trillion Balance Sheet

In a significant move, Chair Warsh announced the formation of a new task force to review the Federal Reserve’s massive $6.7 trillion balance sheet. This group will investigate whether monetary policy is being effectively driven by interest rate adjustments or through the balance sheet tool. This initiative addresses long-standing criticisms regarding the scale and impact of the Fed's recent liquidity management.

Impact on Asian and Emerging Markets

Наслідки монетарної політики США відчуваються в усій Азії. Японська єна ослабла до найнижчого рівня щодо долара США з липня 2024 року, що викликає занепокоєння щодо можливого офіційного втручання японської влади.

Водночас країни з ринками, що розвиваються, у Південно-Східній Азії готуються до наслідків. Очікується, що центральні банки Індонезії та Філіппін — обидва з яких були вразливими до високих цін на нафту — цього четверга підвищать відсоткові ставки на чверть пункту, щоб стабілізувати свої економіки.

Основні висновки