OMC Earnings Under Pressure Amid Q1FY27 Under-Recoveries and Excise Risks

Indian Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) are bracing for a challenging fiscal period as projected under-recoveries for Q1FY27 threaten to squeeze profitability. Despite recent improvements in global crude sentiment, domestic brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher warns that margin compression and regulatory uncertainties will likely keep earnings under pressure through FY27.

The Impact of Under-Recoveries in Q1FY27

A significant factor weighing down the outlook for OMCs is the anticipated under-recovery in fuel segments. According to a recent research report by Prabhudas Lilladher, the industry is expected to face under-recoveries of ₹7/litre for Motor Spirit (MS) and ₹10/litre for High-Speed Diesel (HSD) in the first quarter of FY27. These projections account for a ₹10/litre excise duty cut and capped crack spreads of USD 10/bbl for MS and USD 15/bbl for HSD.

LPG remains a critical pain point for the sector. Losses in the LPG segment are estimated to reach approximately ₹500/cylinder in Q1FY27. This follows a volatile trend observed in the previous quarter, where LPG under-recoveries surged from roughly ₹170/cylinder in April 2026 to between ₹610–₹670/cylinder in May 2026. Adding to this pressure, Saudi CP prices for Q1FY27 are expected to climb by 47% quarter-on-quarter, driven by supply constraints stemming from disruptions in West Asia.

The Excise Duty Rollback Overhang

Beyond operational costs, a major regulatory risk looms over OMCs: the potential rollback of excise duty cuts. The current ₹10/litre excise cut was originally implemented as a crisis management measure rather than a permanent fiscal policy. As crude prices moderate and retail price hikes are implemented, the government may move to gradually withdraw this benefit to recover lost revenue.

The financial stakes for the government are high, with the current excise cuts resulting in a revenue impact of approximately ₹1,700 billion annually. While any rollback is expected to happen in a phased manner, the mere possibility of this move continues to act as a significant overhang on the earnings sentiment for oil marketers.

Crude Oil Volatility and Inventory Dynamics

虽然近期的美伊停火有助于布伦特原油跌破 80 美元/桶大关，但该经纪公司警告称，这一下跌趋势可能只是昙花一现。尽管伊朗石油出口的恢复和霍尔木兹海峡的局势稳定可能会在短期内压低价格，但预计随后会出现供需转变。

报告强调，随着各国开始补充其战略石油储备 (SPR) 和常规库存，全球原油需求可能会上升。由于近期冲突导致库存枯竭，这种补充周期预计将为油价提供底部支撑并维持市场波动，从而防止印度进口商获得持续的低价原油。

核心要点

  • 利润率压缩： 石油营销公司 (OMCs) 在 2027 财年第一季度面临严重的回收不足，具体表现为汽油 (MS) 每升 7 卢比，高速柴油 (HSD) 每升 10 卢比，同时液化石油气 (LPG) 板块也面临巨额亏损。
  • 监管风险： 可能分阶段取消每升 10 卢比消费税减免的举措，仍是石油营销商长期盈利能力的主要威胁。
  • 原油波动： 虽然近期价格有所回落，但全球库存补充和西亚供应限制预计将使原油价格保持波动。