OMC Earnings to Face Pressure Due to Q1FY27 Under-Recoveries

Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) in India are bracing for a challenging period as profitability concerns loom large for the upcoming fiscal year. According to a recent research report by brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher, significant under-recoveries in Q1FY27 and the looming risk of excise duty rollbacks are set to weigh heavily on the sector's earnings.

Significant Under-Recoveries Expected in Q1FY27

The primary driver of the anticipated earnings slump is the projected under-recovery in fuel prices. Prabhudas Lilladher expects substantial losses in the first quarter of FY27. Specifically, the report anticipates under-recoveries of ₹7/litre for Motor Spirit (MS) and ₹10/litre for High-Speed Diesel (HSD). These figures take into account a ₹10/litre excise cut and a cap on cracks at USD 10/bbl for MS and USD 15/bbl for HSD.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is identified as the most critical pain point for OMCs. Losses for LPG are estimated to reach approximately ₹500 per cylinder in Q1FY27. This follows a volatile trend observed in previous quarters; for instance, LPG under-recoveries jumped from roughly ₹170/cyl in April 2026 to between ₹610–₹670/cyl in May 2026. Adding to this pressure, Saudi CP prices are expected to surge by 47% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) for Q1FY27 due to supply constraints caused by disruptions in West Asia.

The Excise Duty Rollback Risk

A major overhang for the sector is the potential rollback of excise duty cuts. The ₹10/litre excise cut was originally implemented as a crisis management measure rather than a permanent policy. With crude oil prices moderating and retail price hikes already being implemented, there is a growing possibility that the government may phase out these benefits to recoup lost revenue.

Currently, the government bears a revenue impact of approximately ₹1,700 billion per year due to these excise cuts. While any rollback is expected to happen in a phased manner, the mere possibility of this move remains a significant pressure point for the earnings outlook of OMCs.

Crude Oil Volatility and Inventory Rebuilding

虽然近期地缘政治局势的发展（如美伊停火）助力布伦特原油跌破 80 美元/桶，但该经纪商警告称，短期市场情绪依然脆弱。虽然预计伊朗石油出口将恢复，这可能会令价格走软，但一种反向力量正在发挥作用：战略库存重建。

随着各国在近期冲突中使用储备后，开始着手补充其战略石油储备 (SPR) 并维持最佳资源水平，预计市场将出现增量需求。这种库存补充周期可能会导致原油价格持续波动，从而阻止价格出现持续下跌趋势，并使印度炼油商和营销商的利润空间持续承压。

核心要点

  • 燃料亏损： 预计在 2027 财年第一季度，石油营销公司 (OMCs) 将面临汽油 (MS) 每升 7 卢比和高速柴油 (HSD) 每升 10 卢比的亏损，液化石油气 (LPG) 的亏损预计为每罐 500 卢比。
  • 监管风险： 逐步取消每升 10 卢比消费税减免的可能性，对净利润稳定性构成了重大威胁。
  • 原油动态： 尽管价格出现暂时性下跌，但随着战略石油储备的补充带动全球需求上升，预计市场波动仍将持续。